Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
There is a forward curve for NYMEX gas here:


you may have to startat NYMEX.com and click through accepting their terms of use to see the data.

What you will find is the mkt for 07 and 08 is more like $8.5-$9 bucks.  There is enough open interest to give some confidence as these prices being reflective of what the real buyers and sellers think.

I wouldn't put a lot of money on a long range forecast by Morningstar or anyone else.  There are just too many variables (and I used to have to make markets in related markets -- it ain't easy).  One hurricane and you are an idiot low.  A mild winter and $15 gas ($100 dollar oil!) becomes a spot price of $7.1 in February.  

Further forward, NYMEX prices are  lower ($6's and 7's).  This is primarily because of market imbalances.  Banks make small producers sell forward production to hedge in a return on drilling/exploration loans.  Buyers are much fewer and farther between.  Some Utils might hedge (less after Enron blew up making "trading" a word on a par with pedophile) and perhaps some fertilizer manufacturers.  But now that utils can float their energy sales prices, why bother?  Let the customer take the pain if prices shoot up.

by HiD on Sat Feb 25th, 2006 at 02:26:24 AM EST

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