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Actually, the jump from 4 to 5.67$/mbtu is pretty daring for an outfit like Morningstar. That means they are significantly increasing their worst case scenarios for energy prices - which means that higher energy prices are finally seeping through to the long term financiers. This is a real change, because it means that they will now lend money on the basis of such higher scenarios.

You have to look at the rest as the usual prudent fudge: scenarios that remain close to current wisdom (which is that energy prices "always come back to the mean") while taking into account the facts on the ground, which are being persistently incompatible with said common wisdom.

So the lower inflation rate is, I think, a concession to "common wisdom" after the daring step of increasing the expected minimum price.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 26th, 2006 at 07:35:23 AM EST
that higher energy prices are finally seeping through to the long term financiers. This is a real change, because it means that they will now lend money on the basis of such higher scenarios.
Also invest, but perhaps you meant that when you said "lending".  So many of the breakthrough ideas come from risk capital invested in start-ups and their new concepts.  But venture capitalists and private equity investors are trying to have the best chance of success in a very risky market--the seed capital and early stage investing market.  While there has been some investing in energy, IMO, it has been limited by the fact that oil prices have historically come back to lower levels, as you suggest.  So throw on top of all the other risks of private equity investing, the idea that the energy price levels you are assuming in your models could drop by 50%---whoa, does that destroy your projected ROI's.  

While Bush's comments on energy have been mocked, and for good reason.  His comments over time will also give some support to higher long term energy prices, and therefore VC models that are built on higher price assumptions, making returns on new technologies in energy more attractive.

by wchurchill on Sun Feb 26th, 2006 at 01:55:53 PM EST
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