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You have to look at the rest as the usual prudent fudge: scenarios that remain close to current wisdom (which is that energy prices "always come back to the mean") while taking into account the facts on the ground, which are being persistently incompatible with said common wisdom.
So the lower inflation rate is, I think, a concession to "common wisdom" after the daring step of increasing the expected minimum price. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
that higher energy prices are finally seeping through to the long term financiers. This is a real change, because it means that they will now lend money on the basis of such higher scenarios.
While Bush's comments on energy have been mocked, and for good reason. His comments over time will also give some support to higher long term energy prices, and therefore VC models that are built on higher price assumptions, making returns on new technologies in energy more attractive.
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