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Anyway, it seems like there might be three models, actually. Leaving off assignments to specific countries, they are perhaps the following:
There is no stable 'Chinese model'. What is unique about China is not existing for 3000 years, instead, to re-assemble every time it falls apart. China fell apart about a dozen times over those 3000 years, and had numerous 'lesser' crises even in-between. 'Lesser' in scare quotes because some of these were nothing short of a catastrophic collapse - with population decreases by two-thirds for example.
The Roman Empire in turn was on the verge of collapse several times, only those events seem less significant to a history book reader than a contemporary. There were times two centuries before the official end of the Roman Empire when there were multiple break-off provinces, rival rulers, conflict with another great empire, and multiple massive barbarian invasions at the same time - but latter-day readers know that Rome consolidated again, and can't be that 'scared'. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
His second model may partially describe France (but the other part is your second model). *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
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