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Article Deconstruction (vol. 5) - French fear | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Article Deconstruction (vol. 5) - French fear (none / 0)
I'll take an exception to that last sentence. A first study estimating the impact of the CNE, the existing measure for small companies, shows that net job creations appear to be minimal.

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360 000 CNE contracts have been signed in 6 months, and 120 000 of these are new job creations (according to Villepin himself!). Now at first glance, this may mean 0.2/3% less unemployment (120 000 jobs) ... but it also means 0.4/6% of the active population shifting from better contracts towards a CNE.

And I am inclined to believe that job creations during the first 6 months correspond either to companies that all this time have been eager to recruit, and who thus won't recruit as much during the next 6 months, or to new jobs due to new company creations (ie some small companies die and appear all the time, if at each new appearance we cound a "new job creation" ... it's easier to obtain such figures). Basically I don't believe that it's going to create a lot of new jobs, it'll only reduce the number of people with better contracts.

by Alex in Toulouse on Fri Mar 24th, 2006 at 08:05:25 AM EST
Re: Article Deconstruction (vol. 5) - French fear (none / 0)
Strauss Kahn said, that in the sector where the CNE is applied, 30 000 jobs were created in the first semester, when the CNE was not operating, and 30 000 in the second semester. I have no clue where he got these numbers from  , though.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine
by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Fri Mar 24th, 2006 at 08:22:02 AM EST
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Re: Article Deconstruction (vol. 5) - French fear (none / 0)
From an article in Le Monde today:

Prudent, l'Insee juge que l'effet du CNE sur l'emploi est "difficile" à mesurer. Elle estime cependant qu'il devrait permettre, "selon une hypothèse raisonnable", la création nette de "10 000 à 20 000 emplois par trimestre"...

INSEE (national statistics) prudently considers that the effect of the CNE on employment is "difficult" to measure. It estimates however that it should lead, "in a reasonable hypothesis," to the net creation of "10,000 to 20,000 jobs per quarter"...

Thierry Breton (Finance Minister) claims the CNE has already created 400,000 jobs that "don't show up yet in the statistics". Obviously the government wants to claim as many jobs as possible for its own measures, when in fact the context is one of cyclical rise which is creating jobs.

As to whether the CNE is a success, I reported on another thread, from anecdotal evidence, that small employers were hesitating to use it because it carries fairly heavy severance obligations (compared to a straightforward indefinite contract).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Mar 24th, 2006 at 10:28:20 AM EST
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Article Deconstruction (vol. 5) - French fear | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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