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My wife and I are from the baby boomer generation, (OK, first half), with large extended families--lots of nephews, nieces, cousins, etc. Our parents were upper/lower class to lower/middle class. Looking across two generations (ours, including our cousins, and the one following), there are about 80 people. No one did not go to college due to not being able to find the money to go. 3 unfortunately had drug problems and their were two with mental disabilities, and three did not want to go (married after high school and farm kids, wanting that life style). The rest went to college and graduated.
The types of colleges covered a wide range, but it was an interesting discussion, because we realized that there were some very bright kids (valedictorians, high test scores) who really chose there colleges based on comfort levels, where friends were going, expectations of friends and families. In other words, a number of kids could have easily qualified for higher ranked schools (top 25 prestige schools)than they went to, both scholastically and through financial aid--but just wanted to go somewhere else--often the state school, which are great academicaly as we looked at them, but don't have the prestige.) It looks like 5 of us went to "elite" undergrad programs.
So I think there are some similarities to what Jerome described about France, in that the high school you are in, or expectations of your peers and family are likely to dictate where you go to school. But our experience says that great grades, high test scores (like SAT's) and motivation to go to the "elite", maybe elite-lite, schools,,,you can do that--finances (scholarship, loans, part time jobs, summer jobs) will not stop you.
My impressions on this are based on reading about some of these factors individually (like I think you are right that tuitions have gone up rapidly), and on anecdotal things--family and friends' children's experiences.
Have scholarships increased for example?--I think endowments for private universities have, but I don't know about scholarships.
I'll look around, but I haven't seen such an all encompassing article.
In the 10 years since I left grad school, in fact, my school has been able to provide much more financial support for students than they could when I was there. (In my program, it was basically no financial support at the time, which is why I took on tens of thousands of dollars in debt, now mercifully paid off.)
Successful alumni give a lot of money, some of it to the universities themselves (general funds, etc.) and some directly to the programs, schools or departments from which they graduated.
In the case of my graduate school, they've nearing the end of an eight-year general fundraising campaign that has raised more than $1.6 billion so far (the goal is $2b) and will increase the university's endowment by more than $628 million. This fundraising campaign includes goals for each school or department.
Sports is also a big part of the puzzle, and not from ticket revenues, either. The university has recently decided to use 100 percent of revenues from sales of trademark-licensed products on scholarships and financial aid. Those products include T-shirts and caps bearing the school logo, which given that it's a major sports school with basketball jerseys worn around the world (I'm not exaggerating, I've seen them), that is a lot of money.
Meanwhile, in the actual program I attended within the university, an anonymous donor just endowed a professorship with a $3m gift. The school says "private funds" (whatever those are) account for 78 percent of its budget, not including payroll, which is covered by the university (except for those endowed professorships, of which there are several).
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