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Productivity is only going to decrease hiring if businesses are not willing to invest in increased capacity in the given country, despite those productivity gains.  So it's difficult to say, one way or the other, that productivity produces a change in employment.  The problem is that, to answer that question properly, we would have to consider an untold number of factors.

The statement, in my opinion, can't be justified (nor can it be shot down).  It's not that productivity is independent of hiring.  A different way to look at it would be to say, "Well, my company's producitivity has jumped, so I can afford to hire more workers and produce more goods."  It's the investment decision that's going to determine the employment outcome.

I think we, in the West, are dealing with a period of uncertainty right now -- more so, perhaps, in America than anywhere else, but the effect is not lost on Europe, I suspect.  Productivity growth has been fairly strong in America over the last few years, but, as we all know, private-sector job growth has been a joke.

The reason productivity growth should lead to job growth is that it lowers costs, right?  But this is also coming at a time when there are tremendous opportunities in countries, like China, where lower wages can offset the lack of productivity.

I hope some of that made sense, because I'm about to fall asleep.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 28th, 2006 at 04:47:44 PM EST
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Well, I'd connect it to TGeraghty's post on global over-capacity (relative to demand.) If the paper he refers to is correct and this is something that first turned up in the 1970s then the addition of strong-supply, weak-demand countries like India and China to the mix implies some big troubles if we don't take it inot account.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Mar 29th, 2006 at 02:50:26 AM EST
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