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actually I'm not so sold on the high-energy lifestyle that I think losing some large percentage of it is the same thing as losing civilisation or "a decent life." so how "screwed" we are [and I'll remark in passing that a wealth of gender politics is expressed by that colloquialism] depends on whether life without SUVs or strawberries in December seems like life in Hell, or not. my feeling is, not so much.
people are pretty much happy or unhappy based first on the core needs -- water, food, clothing, shelter, meaning, human company -- and then on invidious comparison (misery is knowing that the other monkey's heap of nuts and berries is larger than your own, even if your own is enough to live on). I think we could meet the core needs with only a fraction of our current energy expenditure -- that most of oour present energy profligacy is just a form of Pyramid-building, i.e. just showing off for imperial or national or caste aggrandisement. chest-beating with terajoules. and much of our energy wealth is invested in grotesque accumulation which only feeds individious comparison and the ensuing misery and stress.
I'm not sure life would be all that horrible under a lower-energy regime. my big worry -- and I don't think anyone has really got the math together on this because the problem is too big and most of the necessary numbers too obfuscated and falsified -- can we actually feed everyone a decent health-sustaining diet if we have to revert to sustainable agricultural practises? note that I don't suggest a "western" diet which is not feasible even with all the fossil fuel we're throwing at the problem currently, but a livable diet.
attached to this big feasibility worry is the inevitable fear that there will not be sufficient political will for resource justice (or that elites with a lot of firepower at their disposal and zero conscience have too iron a grip), and that even if we could feed our current numbers with sustainable practises the attempt will never be made because the global elite will cling like limpets to their profligacy ("The American way of life is not negotiable") and not give a tinker's damn if millions starve per day, even as we don't give much of a damn when tens of thousands starve per day... as they presentiy do. cornucopianism has substituted for responsibility and conscience for so long now that the latter qualities may have become mostly vestigial.
I'm not so much afraid of some of the shapes human life might take in a lower-energy paradigm, as I am of the global tantrum I expect from the spoilt-brat social stratum (which is larger than ever in human history thanks to the fossil fuel orgy, and I'm a part of it too) we can anticipate on our (looking pretty much inevitable) way there. The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
a friend of mine once expressed the unpleasant political reality like this: you ask an affluent First World inhabitant to get real and decide which is more important, driving their car or feeding their kids. they blink a couple of times and (most of them) say staunchly: Feed the kids, forget the goddamn car.
but if you ask them which is more important, driving their car or feeding someone else's kids -- especially someone else who is poor and/or darker-skinned and/or speaks a different language and/or lives more than 30 miles away -- then you are likely to get a different and depressing answer. and when I think about oil prices and the end of the cheap energy regime, this is what depresses me.
it's not so much that I think "we are all doomed and the human story is over" as that I think very large numbers of us may be doomed unless we learn to think and act in a very different way --r and we have a long record of learning disabilities and truancy in this area... The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
That's why I think we're screwed. In terms of absolute resources, we're not inevitably screwed. Re-adjustment would be painful, but not impossible. With proper planning a soft landing could even be engineered.
But the social problem is a much more pressing issue. Right now, too many people don't believe there's a problem, and don't want to believe there's a problem. They believe that in spite of occasional alarmist reports things will carry on more or less as they have done - because that's what things do. They have no experience of rationing or serious scarcity, so they can't imagine that rationing or serious scarcity could ever happen or ever affect them personally.
As other people have said, it won't be till gas is $5 and upwards a gallon in the US and the waves are lapping around their beach front homes and the shops are increasingly empty of even the basics that they will start to realise that the world has changed.
It may already be too late by then. And they may simply decide to turn feral and turn on each other.
So without some kind of unprecedented seismic change in awareness, I think the screwed part is looking more and more unavoidable at this point.
Just thinking personally, I would go out and install a large windmill in my back garden tomorrow if I could. It probably wouldn't cover more than about a third of my current energy budget, but it would be better than nothing.
But can I? If I do I will be ordered to take it down because of heritage planning considerations, and if I don't comply it will be dismantled by force with a hefty fine.
When that changes there may be some evidence of intelligent strategy from government. In the meantime - unfortunately not.
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