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Well here is my take on Iran and it possibly wanting nuclear weapons.  First of all I have to say that I am not that optimistic when it comes to the theocracy in Iran and their peaceful intentions.  There are plenty of examples of that regime supporting terrorist groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, it issuing a death verdicts like the fatwa issued over Salman Rushdie and it actively pursuing and killing publishers of Salman Rushdie's book "The satanic verses", all over the world. There is also a lot of circumstantial evidence, which I have linked to in previous comments, which point to Iran having ambitions of develop nuclear weapons.  

Some people say that this is exactly the same situation prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003.  Well I'd say not quite.  There was no conclusive evidence of Iraq ever having a fully operational nuclear facility ready to enrich uranium.  The Saddam regime had the ambitions of becoming a nuclear power and did what they could to make it happen but had a long way to go.  The IAEA and indeed the Iranian regime, have verified that they now have the capability and the intent to enrich uranium themselves and thus the evidence is there plain to see beyond any reasonable doubt.  What seems to be a striking resemblance to the Iraqi cases is the call for immediate military action and the mantras of danger and urgency being put forward.      

Now how is the international community to deal with such a possibility?  First of all if there are countries I would not like to see develop nuclear weapons, Iran is certainly on the top of my list for the reasons mentioned above.  Still, I don't think that there is a military solution to this, at least not yet, and if it was to come to such a solution the Iranians would just rebuild there facilities after they have been bombed, thus the only lasting solution would be a diplomatic one with a mutual consent to and understanding of how this issue is to be solved.  First of all I'd suggest:

  1.  That the negotiations with Iran continue even if the case are being reviewed by the UN Security Council and that the negotiations are given the necessary time and emphasise.  Still, that doesn't mean that the talks shouldn't have a time frame since that could allow the Iranians to filibuster and prolong the negotiations while they continue their research.

  2.  If the talks are forestalled and there seems to be no solution in site, that the UN Security Council impose sanctions on Iran that have a timeframe until they are willing to comply or enter into meaningful talks.

  3.  If nothing comes out of the sanctions and no meaningful negotiations are initiated with no prospect of a solution, that the UN Security Council discuss alternative ways to the sanctions, which could mean limited military action.  

A military action, if decided, should be limited to air strikes, possibly in collusion with Special Forces, on the nuclear facilities in question and only conventional weapons should be used.  A limited military action should only be considered as an absolute last option.  

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 11:37:10 AM EST
A military action, if decided, should be limited to air strikes, possibly in collusion with Special Forces, on the nuclear facilities in question and only conventional weapons should be used.  A limited military action should only be considered as an absolute last option.  

What would the consequences be?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 11:38:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The consequences would be in short and medium term, a further deterioration of the relations between Iran and the international community.  It would mean that the Iranians would rebuild their nuclear facilities thus giving them and the international community another chance for negotiations, this time within a longer time frame.

Some would say that the Iranians would never negotiate after a military strike against their nuclear facilities.  I doubt that, at least within a medium term time frame, this because they will see the futility in the build-destroy-rebuild scenario.  If they are seriously considering being able to produce nuclear power in the future the only logical solution would be real and honest negotiations.    

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 11:59:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That assumes that the relevant nuclear facilities are hittable.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 12:01:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and that is another point.  The Iranians might have other facilities not reported, but the logic in it being their capabilities would be seriously disrupted.  The reason why I mentioned the Special Forces option is if there are facilities not hittable and that would of course mean a serious risk to those forces.  The tactical nuclear card should be off the table period.

I have to add though that I hope the military option never materializes and that this conflict can be resolved peacefully through diplomacy.  
 

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 12:13:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So far this is the best summary I have seen on where to go from here.  Including and emphasizing
I have to add though that I hope the military option never materializes and that this conflict can be resolved peacefully through diplomacy.
by wchurchill on Sat Mar 11th, 2006 at 11:10:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First of all I have to say that I am not that optimistic when it comes to the theocracy in Iran and their peaceful intentions.  There are plenty of examples of that regime supporting terrorist groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, it issuing a death verdicts like the fatwa issued over Salman Rushdie and it actively pursuing and killing publishers of Salman Rushdie's book "The satanic verses", all over the world.

Not to absolve the current regime in any way, but what you are speaking about happened under the previous supremo, and the pre-previous government.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that might be but the fatwa still stands and the theocracy still stands with their religious totalitarianism and oppressing laws especially against women.

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Sat Mar 11th, 2006 at 04:03:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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