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What do you think the future looks like?

I think Dune captured the feeling of an after technology future. Not in the sense that they did not use technology but that the technology was static, only for the uber-wealthy and geared military usages. And it was a world perceived as static in the social structure and technology. The emperors shift but the throne remains.

And this is what I see when I try to peer into the future. Ecosystems that can not take any more abuse, energy getting more expensive when oil and gas peaks, world wide transports slowing down, global change in weather patterns and ecosystems due to CO2.

Food crisis in poor parts of the world, as their food is transported to the rich (they had to kinds of salmon at my shop the other week: one from the Pacific Ocean and one from Norway, but the one from Norway was probably brought up on fishprotein form the Pacific). More wars over resorces. Starting as small wars, they might stay that way, but they might also expand into huge wars (remember world war one) and then we might all be dead from the nuclear bombs. But as I have a positive outlook on things I will assume that the world does not end in nuclear holocaust.

In the world rich enough to be represented on this site there will be no Mad Max style collapse , but slide towards a very strict partition into the uberwealthy with most of the technological gadgets of today, but not much progress or change in the gadgets. Their military class with todays weapons and some that are now in the labs (especially towards crowd control weaponry). A small technical service class that can make and repair the gadgets and weapons. And then the rest of us as manual labour, on the fields (mostly), in the mines and in some factories.

And I am quite young so I will get the chance to see if I am right in my lifetime. Did you all know that peak fish (in the maximum extraction sense) was in 2004?

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:48:41 AM EST
I'm going to have to start writing cheerier visions just to offset you and DeA.

I don't agree that this is a necessary outcome. It's a possible one but I think we can do much, much better. Take a look at how appallingly wasteful everything we do currently is.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:56:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would be interested in a diary about peak fish.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:11:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
start here

75 percent of the big fish populations worldwide are "fished out".

when I was a teenager, I can remember, I read cheery books on deep-sea fishing asserting confidently that the oceans were an infinite reservoir of protein, and if we just ramped up our fishing efforts with the latest technology, hunger would become a thing of the past.  [infinite, oh gawd there's that word again.  "Djou keep using that worrd.  I do not tink it means, what djou tink it means."  IMHO any planner or economist who uses the word "infinite" should have his/her mouth washed out with pine tar soap.]

thanks to deep sea fishing with "efficient" technologies (that throw aside up to 50 percent of the biotic tonnage stripmined from the sea as "bycatch," mangled and dying), we have introduced hunger to Southern Hemi coastal villages with millenium-old fisheries, as vandalism of the marine food chain has devastated coastal as well as deep sea stocks.

the sentence I want to highlight in the article cited above is this one:  Today a 70 pound swordfish-which is too young to have even reproduced-is considered "a good sized fish" and can be legally landed in the US.

consider this sentence carefully.  we are catching top-of-food-chain species, long-lived species, so young that they have not had time to reproduce.  this is called extermination, not harvesting or even rational predation.  in a more agrarian metaphor it is eating the seed corn;  in my favourite analogy it is chopping down the orchard to get at the apples.  it is eating the future in one greedy gulp.  when you devour your food source before it has time to reproduce, this gives a whole new meaning to the word "stupid."

this is what I call looting.  smashing whatever gets in the way to grab what's grabbable and run, the hell with the consequences.


The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:26:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks!

And thanks for this diary, too.

I'm glad I waited till I was home from work to read it, because I kept saying "yes!" out loud, and my coworkers would have thought I was nuts.

when you devour your food source before it has time to reproduce, this gives a whole new meaning to the word "stupid."

There, I just did it again.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 03:00:31 AM EST
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my coworkers would have thought I was nuts.

And we can't have that, can we?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 03:54:19 AM EST
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Now that you mention it, it's probably too late.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 05:02:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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