Yes, the price of oil could go to $150 a barrel, and yes, Iran could retaliate with a terrorist offensive that would light Iraq and the Persian Gulf up like Roman candles. We can't rule out a major attack on American soil. (A recent report based on Saudi intelligence sources claims the al-Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps -- probably the most capable terrorist support organization in the world -- already has a box on its organizational chart labeled "North America.")

But, barring another 9/11, or a worldwide financial meltdown, the day after a nuclear strike on Iran might not look that much different than the day before, at least to the folks back home. The impact on oil prices -- and even more importantly, on prices at the pump -- might be containable, at least in the short-term, if the Straits of Hormuz remain open and the strategic oil reserve does what it's supposed to do. (Very big ifs, to be sure, but not impossible ones. Neither of the last two wars in the gulf turned into the energy catastrophes everyone had feared when they began.) Financial markets might actually rally if Wall Street judges the strike to have been a "success."

There is no way in hell that a nuclear strike on Iran does not trigger a total economic meltdown. Hormuz will be closed off absolutely, and the Gulf countries are totally unlikely to keep on delivering oil to the West in any case.

Oil sill not reach 150$/bl, but 5,000$/b as we need to destroy one third of our demand instantaneously. Rationing, state of emergency everywhere, and whatever chaos Iranian special forces (hard to call them terrorists in such circumstances) cause in whatever countries they'll be attacking.

Meltdown, war footing, suspension of democracy, ...

An unprovoked nuclear strike? It will be really, really ugly.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes