Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
I have a hard time seeing that the European governments will be able to keep as quiet as Billmon claims thought. There is going to be a storm of leftists and muslim immigrants in European countries. Politicians will be forced to go into opposition or be swept from power.

My guess: The EU will quickly find a new mission as a counterweight against the United States. Massive rearmament, nuclear as well as conventional follows.

by Trond Ove on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 05:12:25 AM EST
I have a hard time seeing that the European governments will be able to keep as quiet as Billmon claims thought.

I am more pessimistic. The public is less sceptical now than before Iraq, and no government launched a pre-emptive anti-war line (like Schröder's did last time). The protests may fizzle out.

Massive rearmament, nuclear as well as conventional follows.

I don't think so. I don't think the EU will even attempt an armament race with the USA, if at all, then in other fields. (This is not only my desire speaking: I don't think existing EU-military ambitions can be throttled up that much against the economic, social and political realities and reigning philosophies in Europe.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 07:03:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The point wouldnt be to start another armaments race but to be able to be a credible force on its own and to deter an increasingly erratic United States.

I actually think the reason that there are less resistance now, is that the great majority of people (including European politicians) think the US is bluffing, since they have fucked up so much already. I am pretty certain the shock if the U.S. attacks with Nuclear weapons will HAVE to force many European countries into strong reactions.

by Trond Ove on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 07:41:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The point wouldnt be to start another armaments race but to be able to be a credible force on its own and to deter an increasingly erratic United States.

If economic dependencies and the belief that we can't turn into targets only the Third World weren't enough, French and British nukes already are there to deter. (North Korea's few nukes are enough to deter.) But to build a strategic arsenal on par with that of the USA, I think that is a practical impossibility (and one realised as such) for the above wide-ranging reasons. (For example, no one will want to branch off that much money from the economy.)

As for "credible force", this is the mantra of the Euro-militarists already, but I don't see it catching on just because of the USA. The EU likes to deal with outside effects through economic and diplomatic means, and most people can't really feel all that threatened. A US nuke in Iran won't change that.

I actually think the reason that there are less resistance now, is that the great majority of people (including European politicians) think the US is bluffing

I am sceptical on that. After Iraq, I'd expect people to assume the opposite, and lack of resistance comes from a feeling of powerlessness. (The Franco-German opposition to the Iraq war gave a lot of people hope, I don't think the 15 Feb 2003 protest would have been as big if they had lurched along.) As for the politicians, I believe they unfortunately believe they can hold off the neocons with appeasement, not that they don't mean it.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 11:23:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK do not have nukes - they are US controlled.

France does, and they will suddenly acquire real significance in the case of a US strike against Iran.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 06:45:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series