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Peter Drucker said, and I paraphrase, forecasting is very difficult, except when it comes to demographics--then it's almost a certainty.

I don't know if the solutions listed above are "free market" solutions (raising taxes to pay for the retirement of the elderly for example), they are just potential solutions.  So this is your solution?  

there are multiple solutions to all these problems (insofar as they're problems...) not just the single set of one-size-fits all solutions pushed by these fuckers.

OK.

by wchurchill on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 03:20:27 AM EST
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except when it comes to demographics--then it's almost a certainty.

Assuming a closed system. France is far from a closed system.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 03:24:58 AM EST
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sure there is some migration and immigration,,,,but it's very small compared to the whole, so if you just put a trended estimate on these two factors, you'll find your overall projections are within a couple of %.  and for forecasting, that's incredibly accurate.
by wchurchill on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 03:47:57 AM EST
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I don't understand what you are speaking about.

According to the latest statistics [pdf!], there were 807,400 births, 537,300 deaths (natural balance +270,100), and a net immigration of 97,500 persons (total balance 367,600) in 2005 in France.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 05:24:18 AM EST
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And I'm missing why you don't understand,,,,,I was making the point to Jerome, that while forecasting in general is a very difficult thing to do, and to be accurate, the one area where forecasting can be done very accurately is in estimating what the demographic position of a country will be like a number of years from now.  You know the 45 year olds are going to be 55 for example.  And if you apply historical death rates to that country to each age group, you come up with extremely accurate estimates.  Peter Drucker feels that this is one of the most basic things that business and investors miss--they don't take advantage of this knowledge, and the very significant impact that it has on buying patterns,,,etc.  ie, 55 year olds buy more second homes than 45 year olds,,,so knowing that, and the baby boomer impact as it comes through time,,,,one could invest in second homes when the oldest baby boomer is 45, and make a lot of money--just as an example.  and of course this knowledge applies very much to retirement.

Jerome responded that there are migrations and immigrations that would also effect this number.  and perhaps you too are pointing out there are births and deaths.  and yes that is true, you have to make estimates on all four of these points, and a few others,,,,but they are small in comparison to the overall population and its aging.  so even if you're off quite a bit on these numbers, the accuracy of your demographic forecast will still be very high--certainly high enough to make investment and policy decisions upon.

by wchurchill on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 05:00:09 PM EST
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You are leaving out the option of deportation.
by asdf on Wed Apr 5th, 2006 at 10:51:16 PM EST
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