Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
And I'm missing why you don't understand,,,,,I was making the point to Jerome, that while forecasting in general is a very difficult thing to do, and to be accurate, the one area where forecasting can be done very accurately is in estimating what the demographic position of a country will be like a number of years from now.  You know the 45 year olds are going to be 55 for example.  And if you apply historical death rates to that country to each age group, you come up with extremely accurate estimates.  Peter Drucker feels that this is one of the most basic things that business and investors miss--they don't take advantage of this knowledge, and the very significant impact that it has on buying patterns,,,etc.  ie, 55 year olds buy more second homes than 45 year olds,,,so knowing that, and the baby boomer impact as it comes through time,,,,one could invest in second homes when the oldest baby boomer is 45, and make a lot of money--just as an example.  and of course this knowledge applies very much to retirement.

Jerome responded that there are migrations and immigrations that would also effect this number.  and perhaps you too are pointing out there are births and deaths.  and yes that is true, you have to make estimates on all four of these points, and a few others,,,,but they are small in comparison to the overall population and its aging.  so even if you're off quite a bit on these numbers, the accuracy of your demographic forecast will still be very high--certainly high enough to make investment and policy decisions upon.

by wchurchill on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 05:00:09 PM EST
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