John Stuart Mill or the ethics of liberalism: Part I, private property | 51 comments (51 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: John Stuart Mill or the ethics of liberalism: (none / 0)

This knowledge regarding feasible developments is of first-rank importance to policy development, yet is commonly ignored.

The problem, of course, is that "this knowledge" may be real, but it has not proven to be particularly practical. There have been many attempts at the process you outline and some have even produced reasonably accurate predictions in terms of particular designs.

Where they failed miserably was in accurate predictions of the timing (the difficulty of producing said design). This is the area that needs most work to improve it's status as a policy tool.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue May 2nd, 2006 at 02:11:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John Stuart Mill or the ethics of liberalism: (none / 0)

Timing is indeed unpredictable. Calculations only show (approximately) how a device would behave if made, but cannot tell anything about when some device along the same lines might actually exist -- or whether it will even be worth making, since better technologies often surpass good ones before the latter can be developed.

One application of this kind of knowledge is to suggest what might be worth developing. As Alan Kay said, "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Tue May 2nd, 2006 at 02:49:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John Stuart Mill or the ethics of liberalism: (none / 0)

The best example of this is nuclear fusion reactors, which have been "within 20 years" for the last 60 years.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 2nd, 2006 at 02:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John Stuart Mill or the ethics of liberalism: (none / 0)

Is practical fusion power an example of "unpredictability" (certainly yes) or of "clearly understood to be worth developing" (I'd say no). Fusion reactors have typically been proposed as a way to reduce the fuel-cost of boiling water, relative to fission reactors, while multiplying the capital cost by an unknown and probably huge factor. Why all the excitement?

By contrast, technologies that are, in some sense, about reducing their own costs are in a different and unusual category. (Someone should look into this, and not just the usual specially-interested experts.)

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Tue May 2nd, 2006 at 11:20:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

John Stuart Mill or the ethics of liberalism: Part I, private property | 51 comments (51 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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