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Bush doesn't have the troops to invade. He can't start a draft, because it would never make it through Congress (and the Supreme Court would tell him to go to hell -- yes, even the right-wing justices). Iraq is a mess. The entire world doesn't trust America, and it will refuse to go along with this.
His hands are tied. This is nothing but a political play to get Iran back to the negotiations. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
The problem is that there can be no meaningful negotiations without the US taking part - and the Bush administration is still trying to pretend that it can avoid direct bilateral talks with Iran, so there is a stalemate. I suspect that there is a pretty serious internal struggle going on at present between those who recognise that direct negotiations are the only option and those who would rather hold out in the hopes that circumstances will become more propitious for military action in the future. At any rate, the hawks are shouting very loudly, which suggests that they're worried about the Bush administration being dragged into talks with Iran and the horrendous consequences of doing so.
Furthermore, the administration is rapidly destabilizing under the weight of Iraq, plummeting domestic support, domestic spying revelations, Fitzgerald et al - it will only take an "event" or two for it to collapse in rather ugly fashion.
If the Bush administration were to go down the nuclear strike route then the consequences would be ugly - an anwful lot of innocent Americans abroad would get caught up in a very nasty backlash, and US corporations can forget about their foreign investment portfolios for a few decades to come.
Agreed -- an additional reason for why I don't think the Bush administration was seriously considering a nuclear attack. Bush is also going to take an enormous hit if Fitzgerald does, in fact, tie he and Cheney directly to the Plame case, which seems more and more likely everyday given Libby's recent testimony. So much for "falling on the sword," I guess.
I don't think the negotiations are going to work, whether bilateral or multilateral. But, then again, I'm not fearful of a nuclear Iran. If Iran were to even attempt a launch against the US, the US would turn it into a giant wasteland. The same would be true if Iran provided weapons to al-Qaeda. The Iranians have no incentive to attack us or to enable others to attack us, which is why I've changed my mind on the issue. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Do you mean the Supreme Court would tell him to go to hell if Congress rejected the draft and Bush tried to levy one somehow anyway? Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire
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