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 . . . is that we go down in the most spectacular, thorough, and painful crash in human history.  

That said, people will come around when they have to, and not a moment before.  Everyone has a different comfort zone with regard to facing truth; the art is to find that zone, and push right to the edge.  If you want to know the absolute, dead worst that can happen, read about Easter Island.  I used to think that scenerio was unavailable to us but I am no longer so sure.  Every step we can take away from that outcome we can count as an actual plus.  

At this moment, Cuba is our foremost example of successful, sudden de-industrialization, but its political system, which played a key role in the process, is rather unique.  "Success" not in quotes, because they avoided outright starvation--it doesn't get much better than that.  

No matter what happens, the world will become local again.  Europe perhaps less so than the US, since you have functioning rail systems that will be usable well into the crisis.  Still, the point is that the essentials of life, such as food, will consist of that which can be obtained locallly.  This is why organic farming is so important (industrial agriculture is going down soon) and permaculture is a beacon of hope.  

Political chaos is sure to ensue, and only robust, local social structures have any hope of surviving this.  The essential nature of this chaos will be people grabbing what they can to maintain their past ways, and thus sealing off their own and their neighbors' futures.  It will happen:  Once you have dealt with the basics of survival, it is the biggest threat, and can undo everything.  (A typical example:  Right now the city of Los Angeles is trying to shut down community gardens and take the land to build more freeways.  The gardens will determine whether people live or die, but before it is finished that freeway will be useless.)  

The US--because of its more extensive wrong choices--will be going down before Europe, so you will get lots of case studies from us what not to do.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sat May 27th, 2006 at 05:39:41 PM EST
I am wondering which economic sector or industry will be the first to fail as oil is priced out of its reach. Do you think it might be industrial agriculture?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 27th, 2006 at 05:45:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, actually, air transport will collapse first, it is doing so right now, as James Howard Kuntsler reports.  But air travel is not a true necessity.  

In the US, agriculture is very oil intensive--it depends on oil derived fertilizers and pesticides, farm labor is mechanized, as is processing--which is extensive--and then the food is transported by truck hundreds or thousands of miles.  Gas prices this spring have doubled--merely doubled--and already the farm sector is experiencing distress.  

Agriculture and transport will collapse about the same time, for the same reason.

I think it will collapse within two years.  

At which point our political system will--umm--no longer function in its usual way . . .

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sat May 27th, 2006 at 05:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the reasons I chose to live in a rural area is because I'm literally surrounded by food and fuel. Some of it isn't all that easy to catch - I can't say I like the idea of having to learn how to trap and skin rabbits, especially as a vegetarian, and burning wood becomes a theoretical pastime when you have to chop it and carry it a couple of miles - but the chances of survival here during a crash are still far higher than in a city.

However - I'm fascinated by the persistence of apocalyptic memes. And I've seen so many now that I'll confess to not being entirely convinced by imminent doom. Specifically:

Surviving the end of the cold war, especially during its peak in the early 80s.

Watching various apocalyptic End Times New Age predictions which - coincidentally or not - were also popular in the 80s. Many of these were very, very silly, but that didn't stop people selling - and buying - maps of what the US would look like after Atlantis rose again.

Living through Y2K, which was marginally less silly, and the jury still seems to be out on how apocalyptic it would have been without massive contractor effort in the run up.

And now The Coming Crash...

There almost seems to be a need for this kind of economic disaster, especially on the Left. Possibly because the alternative would be slower, but much worse.

But something about the psychological power of the narrative is still interesting, and it's not clear yet to what extent there's a mythological element to it.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat May 27th, 2006 at 07:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But I must say first that people have short memories.  The 20th century opened with a disastrous war in Europe.  Battlefield death was unprecedented, and after the war troubles continued:  Political re-arrangements resulted starvation in Austria just for example.  

The Great Depression in the US followed a period of economic centralization and "prosperity" at the top, of relaxing of financial regulations and controls, and gross mismanagement similar in structure though smaller in scale to the economic conditions we are seeing now.  The one great difference was that the GD was a collapse of the banking system only--the physical infrastructure remained intact and the US was able to recover with its strong industrial base.  So while the signs of a banking collapse are present now, the means for recovery are not.  

Even so, food was a problem as farmers destoyed food that people needed but had no money to buy.  

After the Second World War food was again a problem in Europe--at least on the continent.  

By the end of the Second World War nuclear weapons were invented, and were soon extensively deployed.  The possibility of civilization ending through nuclear war has remained with us ever since.  This is new, even if--since the end of the Cold War--the odds seem small, and the effect on people's sense of well-being is deep.  Flying saucers make their public appearance about this time--and without weighing in on that subject--I will venture that the public attention is connected to underlying unease.  I would propose this same unease underlies the public response to disaster predictions you cite.  I might add that now that Bush is promoting nuclear war (those "bunker busters") against Iran, the world can hardly be said to be in good hands.  

In short, recent history gives us no reason to think that people will behave well, or that things will always be fine.  

Of course, the things I described were merely shattering, "civilization" did continue, even if the changes did render one age largely incomprehensible to another.  (And it did--go back and read stuff written before WWI:  The atmosphere of prevailing thought is nearly inaccessible.)  

Let's look at religious trends:  In the 19th century a new fundamentalist Christianity was invented that saw the apocalyptic gospels of the Bible as applying to the immediate future.  Though based on wrong scholarship and bogus interpretation, and despite being proved wrong on particulars several times, this apparently crazy version of Christianity gained adherents in the US to the point where at the turn of the 21st century it is a major political force.  One of the odd things about this fundamentalism is that adherents believe as Christians that they should do the devil's work to advance God's timetable for bringing the end of the world about.  As a practical matter, they support policies of environmental destruction and political disruption that interfere with long-range human survival, deliberately.  

Lastly, geology is rather against us.  Peak oil may be a new topic of public discourse, but the issue has been with us as a practical matter for 35 years, and as a theoretical one longer than that.  There were things that could have been done to prepare--on the scale of an entire civilization--but they weren't, and now arithmetic is not in our favor, in the sense that the civilization we have been living in simply cannot continue, and therefore won't.  I cited Cuba to show that mass-die off is at least theoretically avoidable, but that said, the future can look nothing like the present.  

A newer wrinkle in geology is climate change, which has been a theoretical issue as long as peak oil, but which has shown up as a proven problem in only about the last decade.  As climate changes it will disrupt the biosphere and make human survival more difficult.  How difficult?  The folk of sub-Saharan Africa are already fated to die, as the desert expands south.  As for the rest of us--there is really no way to tell how bad it will be.  Where I live now will be under water before the century is out.

Is a bang better than a whimper?  A good question.  We are currently in a race between malign technologies and the undermining of the support infrastructure for those technologies.  Which will win?  What the US government has planned in the way of surveillance certainly makes Stalin's police state seem an amateur effort, but whether they will be able to implement their fantasies is far from sure.  Similarly in biology and biological control.  Politically, the age of independent science is just about over, increasingly, new discoveries are going to be paid for and applied to strategies of domination.  This is, fortunately, self-limiting, but the whimper scenerio implies a longer period of truly amazing agony.  Also, the longer the process takes, the greater the destruction to the biosphere--we are already on the boundary of the greated die-off of species since the end of the dinosaurs--the more prolonged, the starker the boundary will be.  That a large die-off means more opportunities for new species, is a good thing if you are alive to enjoy them a million years from now.  

So certainly a crash seems better.  Except.  To traverse the crash well takes preparation, and that needs time.  

A standard optimization problem with contradictory constraints.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sun May 28th, 2006 at 02:54:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
brilliant!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun May 28th, 2006 at 05:30:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking that perhaps the use of apocalyptic narratives actually makes it harder for people to make gradual changes. And that's partly because when you're locked into a narrative where the choices are either apocalypse or denial, it becomes much harder to deal with reality.

So on the one hand there's the view that things will always carry on as they have done - which will always be popular for a generation that has had a minimum of real social, economic and military dislocation.

On the other there's a kind of unconscious counterpart in Stories of Apocalypse.

In the middle there are real problems which fall into a psychological blindspot because dealing with them realistically would mean stepping out the narrative.

And since there are pay-offs for both extremes - avoidance of anxiety with denial, and satisfaction of revenge and punishment fantasies for apocalypse - the realistic option of dealing maturely with real problems is never quite as popular as it could be.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 28th, 2006 at 11:03:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 . . . American behavior at the end of the 1970's.  That was the turning point for the US.  Before 1980, a soft landing was still possible, and proposals were indeed being made for altering and moving to a sustainable energy economy.  In the election of 1980 such a course was rejected and scrapped. Americans chose denial instead, in the absense of the crisis conditions that are now upon us.  

The Fates are kind.
by Gaianne on Sun May 28th, 2006 at 06:21:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US--because of its more extensive wrong choices--will be going down before Europe

The US has a better arable land per person ratio than Europe does - don't underestimate the importance of that if/when things get really bad. We also have plenty of water (overall that is, the southwest of course is a different matter) and coal. Nor is the US situated near a lot of states that will fail quickly unlike Europe. Basically, don't ignore the non-human factors.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat May 27th, 2006 at 10:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
good point.

the gap between present lifestyle and preconquest native american is a lot bigger there than here in yurp.

the other big difference is the amount of guns.

i wonder if mexico will build a wall to keep the hungry yankee day-workers out one day.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun May 28th, 2006 at 05:34:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]


The Fates are kind.
by Gaianne on Sun May 28th, 2006 at 06:24:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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