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Road Injury: A Big Problem for Global Health (5 May 2006) A major review published today in The Lancet has revealed the enormous burden of road traffic injuries in countries that can least afford to meet the health and economic costs. The authors of the review, from the University of Auckland, the George Institute for International Health in Sydney and the National Institute of Public Health in Mexico, believe that while motorisation has enhanced the lives of many individuals and societies, the benefits have come with a high price, highlighting a critical need to address road traffic injuries as a public health priority. Associate Professor Shanthi Ameratunga, of the University of Auckland, reported that: "Although the number of lives lost in road crashes in high-income countries has decreased in recent decades, for the majority of the world's population the burden of road traffic injury is increasing dramatically in terms of societal and economic costs." In 2002, 1.2 million people were killed and 50 million injured in road traffic crashes worldwide, costing an estimated US$518 billion. The economic costs of road crashes are estimated to exceed the total amount of development assistance low and middle income countries receive annually. "Without appropriate action, road traffic injuries are predicted to escalate from being the ninth leading contributor to the global burden of disease in 1990 to the third leading contributor by 2020," Dr Ameratunga added. "The World Bank reports that in 20 years the global road death toll will increase by 66%, with an even greater divergence between rich and poor nations projected in the future. While a 28% reduction in fatalities is expected in high-income countries, increases in fatalities of 92% and 147% are anticipated in China and India, respectively."
A major review published today in The Lancet has revealed the enormous burden of road traffic injuries in countries that can least afford to meet the health and economic costs.
The authors of the review, from the University of Auckland, the George Institute for International Health in Sydney and the National Institute of Public Health in Mexico, believe that while motorisation has enhanced the lives of many individuals and societies, the benefits have come with a high price, highlighting a critical need to address road traffic injuries as a public health priority.
Associate Professor Shanthi Ameratunga, of the University of Auckland, reported that: "Although the number of lives lost in road crashes in high-income countries has decreased in recent decades, for the majority of the world's population the burden of road traffic injury is increasing dramatically in terms of societal and economic costs."
In 2002, 1.2 million people were killed and 50 million injured in road traffic crashes worldwide, costing an estimated US$518 billion. The economic costs of road crashes are estimated to exceed the total amount of development assistance low and middle income countries receive annually. "Without appropriate action, road traffic injuries are predicted to escalate from being the ninth leading contributor to the global burden of disease in 1990 to the third leading contributor by 2020," Dr Ameratunga added.
"The World Bank reports that in 20 years the global road death toll will increase by 66%, with an even greater divergence between rich and poor nations projected in the future. While a 28% reduction in fatalities is expected in high-income countries, increases in fatalities of 92% and 147% are anticipated in China and India, respectively."
I am voluntarily not bringing in the deaths of the coal industry so as not to turn this (too quickly) into that kind of brawl... Rather, my point is a combination of the following:
So, in effect, even if the number of deaths is in dispute, the policy consequences [of Chernobyl] have happened nevertheless. In that, anti-nuclear advocates have been a lot more effective than road safety ones;
The really hard debate is to get people to admit that we have to actually reduce energy consumption. Dissing nuclear does nothing to help this, it only helps stick with coal by default. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Hear hear. Neither I nor De are advocates of cars :-)
even if the number of deaths is in dispute, the policy consequences have happened nevertheless.
Yes, but policies aren't for eternity. There is significant counter-push in both Sweden and Germany and Britain, for example. Thus how successful anti-nuclear adocates are remains to be seen. On the other side, crash tests, the spread of roundabouts outside France and Britain, the serialisation of ABS and airbags, and the consequent significant reduction in traffic deaths in European countries signal that road safety advocates have an effect, too. (If you'd protest this effect is slow to unable to percipitate into worst affected developig countries, then I have to point out that the same would be true to stringent Finnish-style nuclear safety rules would a nuclear rennaissance include a major buildup in the Third World.)
Can we mention other causes of massive death tolls (on the basis of "we are willing to do something about Chernobyl, let's do something for another, even bigger problem") or is this seen as an attempt at somehow reducing the importance of the Chernobyl toll?
If it is not posed as a false dichotomy, I at least wouldn't oppose using such rhetoric. But, would coal (in its least environmental-controlled form) be posited as 'the' alternative to nuclear, then I would of course disapprove. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
would coal (in its least environmental-controlled form) be posited as 'the' alternative to nuclear, then I would of course disapprove.
Why "would"? Not only it very obviosuly IS, it's already happening. There are 2 nuclear plants being built (or decide) in the Western world, and somethign like 150 coal plants under way. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
What business do you work in again? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I am pointing out the fact that coal-fired plants ARE being built left and right. Wind farms are also being built, but nowhere nearly enough of them to avoid the coal plants, sadly.
In the US, a number of gas-fired plants are switched to coal when it is feasible. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
In response to a complaint that coal is painted 'the' alternative to nuclear by some. It's not the fact, it's the relevance. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
As long as the debate is on "what to build" (supply-side issues rather than demande side issues) and that wind is not seen as a reliable (nor, by many, cheap) baseload source, then politicians and utilities will choose between coal and nuclear.
Coal is much less opposed than nuclear, and thus coal is being built. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Yes, that's why I didn't claim you actually made that claim, only that it can be read thus.
That unnecessarily and unfairly constrains the debate to the narrowness of most politicians' views about wind power and load distribution today. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I decry this as (a) defeatist and (b) rhetorical blackmail :-) I think there are plenty of practical reasons why nuke plants cannot possibly meet the imminent energy shortfall, and plenty of practical reasons why coal is a huge mistake. Either one, to me, is a disastrous choice -- like being forced to choose Bush or Blair for World President. But we'll have to do some more reading and reasoning together to present, and wrangle over, these points. The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
I've heard that Migeru may be looking into this :)
BTW, I ordered Fallen Dragon today, per your recommendation. Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
I don't know of a highway or transit system in the organised, affluent West about which one could say that there was continuing great uncertainty about the number of road deaths over a 20 period in the history of any highway, intersection, or major town grid known to have higher than average lethality.
The public's indifference to the victims of the automobile transit paradigm is imho a qualitatively different thing from the cloud of obfuscation, foot-dragging, secrecy and spin control which seems to surround every nuclear accident. In a future diary I'll be talking about this also :-) The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
Chernobyl is a universal symbol of catastrophe and massive death. Cars are definitely NOT the symbol of a modern plague. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
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