Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:

Road Injury: A Big Problem for Global Health (5 May 2006)

A major review published today in The Lancet has revealed the enormous burden of road traffic injuries in countries that can least afford to meet the health and economic costs.

The authors of the review, from the University of Auckland, the George Institute for International Health in Sydney and the National Institute of Public Health in Mexico, believe that while motorisation has enhanced the lives of many individuals and societies, the benefits have come with a high price, highlighting a critical need to address road traffic injuries as a public health priority.

Associate Professor Shanthi Ameratunga, of the University of Auckland, reported that: "Although the number of lives lost in road crashes in high-income countries has decreased in recent decades, for the majority of the world's population the burden of road traffic injury is increasing dramatically in terms of societal and economic costs."

In 2002, 1.2 million people were killed and 50 million injured in road traffic crashes worldwide, costing an estimated US$518 billion. The economic costs of road crashes are estimated to exceed the total amount of development assistance low and middle income countries receive annually. "Without appropriate action, road traffic injuries are predicted to escalate from being the ninth leading contributor to the global burden of disease in 1990 to the third leading contributor by 2020," Dr Ameratunga added.

"The World Bank reports that in 20 years the global road death toll will increase by 66%, with an even greater divergence between rich and poor nations projected in the future. While a 28% reduction in fatalities is expected in high-income countries, increases in fatalities of 92% and 147% are anticipated in China and India, respectively."

I am voluntarily not bringing in the deaths of the coal industry so as not to turn this (too quickly) into that kind of brawl... Rather, my point is a combination of the following:

  • we seem to tolerate pretty outrageously high death toll to support our addictions to "mobility", "cheap energy", etc... even when such tolls could easily be massively reduced by fairly simple and well known policy prescriptions;

  • even if the exact number of deaths caused by the Chernobyl accident is unknown and/or downplayed, the perception of it as the worst industrial accident ever is firmly established, and the consequent taint of the whole nuclear industry is very real and has had very real consequences as a number of countries have given up on nuclear energy altogether. So, in effect, even if the number of deaths is in dispute, the policy consequences have happened nevertheless. In that, anti-nuclear advocates have been a lot more effective than road safety ones;

  • in such a context, how do we use the attention on the Chernobyl catastrophe and its deathly toll, even if temporary, to leverage that into action on other hecatombes? Can we mention other causes of massive death tolls (on the basis of "we are willing to do something about Chernobyl, let's do something for another, even bigger problem") or is this seen as an attempt at somehow reducing the importance of the Chernobyl toll?


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 07:39:56 AM EST
So, in effect, even if the number of deaths is in dispute, the policy consequences [of Chernobyl] have happened nevertheless. In that, anti-nuclear advocates have been a lot more effective than road safety ones;
Well, actually, there is a two-proged PR propaganda campaign by suporters of nuclear energy: a combination of "we must replace gas and coal with nuclear for Global Climate's sake" and "even Chernobyl wasn't as bad as we thought". The policy consequences can easily be reversed especially as a new generation of people who were never aware of Chernobyl become politically active (I was 10 when Chernobyl happened and aware of it, but new 18-year-old voters were not even born when it happened).

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 10:01:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, nuclear is much better than coal, especially the non RBMK variety.

The really hard debate is to get people to admit that we have to actually reduce energy consumption. Dissing nuclear does nothing to help this, it only helps stick with coal by default.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 12:47:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
we seem to tolerate pretty outrageously high death toll to support our addictions to "mobility", "cheap energy", etc... even when such tolls could easily be massively reduced by fairly simple and well known policy prescriptions;

Hear hear. Neither I nor De are advocates of cars :-)

even if the number of deaths is in dispute, the policy consequences have happened nevertheless.

Yes, but policies aren't for eternity. There is significant counter-push in both Sweden and Germany and Britain, for example. Thus how successful anti-nuclear adocates are remains to be seen. On the other side, crash tests, the spread of roundabouts outside France and Britain, the serialisation of ABS and airbags, and the consequent significant reduction in traffic deaths in European countries signal that road safety advocates have an effect, too. (If you'd protest this effect is slow to unable to percipitate into worst affected developig countries, then I have to point out that the same would be true to stringent Finnish-style nuclear safety rules would a nuclear rennaissance include a major buildup in the Third World.)

Can we mention other causes of massive death tolls (on the basis of "we are willing to do something about Chernobyl, let's do something for another, even bigger problem") or is this seen as an attempt at somehow reducing the importance of the Chernobyl toll?

If it is not posed as a false dichotomy, I at least wouldn't oppose using such rhetoric. But, would coal (in its least environmental-controlled form) be posited as 'the' alternative to nuclear, then I would of course disapprove.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 10:25:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

would coal (in its least environmental-controlled form) be posited as 'the' alternative to nuclear, then I would of course disapprove.

Why "would"? Not only it very obviosuly IS, it's already happening. There are 2 nuclear plants being built (or decide) in the Western world, and somethign like 150 coal plants under way.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 12:48:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh!?

What business do you work in again?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 12:52:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wind?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 12:53:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeedy.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 01:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't understand your question.

I am pointing out the fact that coal-fired plants ARE being built left and right. Wind farms are also being built, but nowhere nearly enough of them to avoid the coal plants, sadly.

In the US, a number of gas-fired plants are switched to coal when it is feasible.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 01:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am pointing out the fact that coal-fired plants ARE being built left and right.

In response to a complaint that coal is painted 'the' alternative to nuclear by some. It's not the fact, it's the relevance.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 01:33:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, your replies could be read to make the following nonsensical argument: "Less wind is built than coal, less nuclear is built than wind, but we should build more nuclear because sadly not enough wind is built."

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 01:37:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's unfair and you know it.

As long as the debate is on "what to build" (supply-side issues rather than demande side issues) and that wind is not seen as a reliable (nor, by many, cheap) baseload source, then politicians and utilities will choose between coal and nuclear.

Coal is much less opposed than nuclear, and thus coal is being built.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 01:52:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's unfair and you know it.

Yes, that's why I didn't claim you actually made that claim, only that it can be read thus.

As long as the debate is on "what to build" (supply-side issues rather than demande side issues) and that wind is not seen as a reliable (nor, by many, cheap) baseload source, then politicians and utilities will choose between coal and nuclear.

That unnecessarily and unfairly constrains the debate to the narrowness of most politicians' views about wind power and load distribution today.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 02:00:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This sounds to me, alas, like a "lie back and like it" argument:  implicitly we're being told that conservation and sustainable practise are impossible, and therefore our only two choices are coal or nuclear -- since no other choices can accommodate the "growth cult" economic model (which is already faltering due to drawdown of resources other than energy, so why keep it on life support?), and it is tacitly assumed that we cannot possibly reduce demand except by catastrophe (which no reasonable person wants).  Jerome seems to be telling us that if we don't want nuclear, we'll get coal -- there is no third, or fourth, or fifth or sixth way -- so we'd better hold our noses and learn to love those warm and friendly isotopes.

I decry this as (a) defeatist and (b) rhetorical blackmail  :-)  I think there are plenty of practical reasons why nuke plants cannot possibly meet the imminent energy shortfall, and plenty of practical reasons why coal is a huge mistake.  Either one, to me, is a disastrous choice -- like being forced to choose Bush or Blair for World President.  But we'll have to do some more reading and reasoning together to present, and wrangle over, these points.

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 10:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, as someone who does all he can to promote wind and conservation, I obviously agree that we shouldn't accept that dichotomy - but it IS the state of the debate for people who actually make the investment decisions, sadly, so we have to find a way to reach them or anti-nuke arguments will - as they do now - lead us to more coal.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon May 8th, 2006 at 03:21:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a fair point, but I note that the coal industry is the dirtiest and most lethal in the same places where governments don't bother about nuclear protesters either.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon May 8th, 2006 at 04:13:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Speaking of energy options, from a physics perspective, it's hard to see any fundamental reason why solar photovoltaic arrays should cost more than leaves of grass. On a global-warming time scale, it seems that we should be able to move technology a bit closer to the levels that physics allows, especially with biology sitting there, taunting us with the possibilities.

I've heard that Migeru may be looking into this :)

BTW, I ordered Fallen Dragon today, per your recommendation.


Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Mon May 8th, 2006 at 04:25:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that I run an entire web site critiquing the automobile transit paradigm and -- in many essays -- pointing out the skewed downplaying and/or disregard of road danger, the absurd hyping of cycling risk, etc. ... I think this criticism is a bit off target :-)  However I do plan to write something more in this series, explaining some of the reasons why people are more afraid of nuclear plants than of their cars.

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 10:12:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW, if one car or even one brand of car had killed 5 digits worth of people, I think there would be quite a stink :-)

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 10:20:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would also point out that -- at least in the industrialised and organised West -- road fatality and injury statistics are fairly honestly kept and the numbers are a matter of public record.  There is not the consistent, continuing history of secrecy and coverups that has plagued the nuclear industry... well, more accurately that has helped the nuclear industry but plagued the public :-)  The FARS database in the US for example is a public resource and many road safety researchers -- including those who are vehemently anti-car -- use it to generate demographics, longitudinal studies, GIS-ref data, etc.  

I don't know of a highway or transit system in the organised, affluent West about which one could say that there was continuing great uncertainty about the number of road deaths over a 20 period in the history of any highway, intersection, or major town grid known to have higher than average lethality.

The public's indifference to the victims of the automobile transit paradigm is imho a qualitatively different thing from the cloud of obfuscation, foot-dragging, secrecy and spin control which seems to surround every nuclear accident.  In a future diary I'll be talking about this also :-)

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 10:30:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course traffic accidents are available. But how much are they actually discussed. They are just statistics. Chernobyl victims, on the other hand, have become mythical in the public consciousness (possibly, by the way, precisely because of the obsfuscation and lies) and are "known" by everybody.

Chernobyl is a universal symbol of catastrophe and massive death. Cars are definitely NOT the symbol of a modern plague.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon May 8th, 2006 at 03:24:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series