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The single most important determining factor in this election is whether the losers in the Socialist primary accept the choice of the militants or not.

If they do, the winner has a good chance of being elected. It will get a good score in the first round (thanks to "2002 remorse" votes from many who voted leftie back then and will vote for the "useful" candidate in the first round to avoid a repeat of 2002), and a strong chance against Sarkozy, who will be dragged down by the totally discredited state of the right following the pathetic last few years.

If they don't, then we'll have dispersion of the votes on the left, and a Le Pen vs Sarkozy second round.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 23rd, 2006 at 11:22:36 AM EST
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I'm pretty sure that Fabius will candidate whatever the choice of the Socialist Party members... and jeopardise Ségolène's chances to be on the second round...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Jun 25th, 2006 at 04:07:19 PM EST
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