The single most important determining factor in this election is whether the losers in the Socialist primary accept the choice of the militants or not.

If they do, the winner has a good chance of being elected. It will get a good score in the first round (thanks to "2002 remorse" votes from many who voted leftie back then and will vote for the "useful" candidate in the first round to avoid a repeat of 2002), and a strong chance against Sarkozy, who will be dragged down by the totally discredited state of the right following the pathetic last few years.

If they don't, then we'll have dispersion of the votes on the left, and a Le Pen vs Sarkozy second round.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes