Getting Buffet on-side will be a big thing for the first round and is worth doing for that, though given the way the polls look for Ségolène (a CSA-Marianne I remember seeing a while back) I'm not sure it's that important given she's polling near 30% in first round intentions and only Sarko is anywhere near (I don't think even Le Pen passes the 10% bar anymore).

This could all change though if (or more when) Fabius decides he doesn't care that the militants choose Royal, he's creating his own campaign. Have to see how that plays though if you get him and another or two doing this then the left side will need to be pulled back together, and Buffet would give this some credibility.

But while we're talking about the possiliblty of fracture on the left, I think it also quite possible a large fracture on the right may well open up. Sarko may be the obvious standard bearer for them, but it remains to be seen whether large segments of the French right are ready for Alain Madelin, who is who I thought I was hearing when Sarko was speaking today. Bayrou may do better than we expect, and not only Bayrou. A perfect storm like in '02 but on the right? Probably not, but I suspect the fracturing on that side may be more than we're thinking today.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill