Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
afew, you raise two interesting quetions

1. If she moves into the centre, she can still get left-wing support in the second round.. The question is indeed if anyone in the PS could win over LCR/PCF voters (if indeed they do coalesce behind Besancenot or another candidate); I tend to think not, even staring in the face the prospect of a Sarkozy presidency. I should think a certaian # of PCF voters will make the traditional vote first round to elect/vote second round to eliminate calculus but thats likely only to be about 2% of the overall electorate.

So I wonder if Royale (and presumably others in the PS) are starting to look at a different calculus in which they try to get to 50% without necessarily drawing on the roughly 12% of voters on the left who see themselves as belonging to the "social movement" and reject the PS's "culture of government." Fabius presumably has been going the other way (or at least did last year by campaiging for the no), trying to get to 50% by pulling in "social movement" votes but I tend to think thats fools gold.

2. How much support does Royale have among PS "rank and file"? Your post suggets you think its there, but Migeru (II think) upthread writes of the prospect of Royale not winning a PS primary but then launchign her own campaign. I have again only anecdotal evidence (talking with friends and colleagues) but dont' sense a great deal of support among actual PS regulars, indeed if anything I sense hostility to he.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Jun 6th, 2006 at 04:25:25 PM EST
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On the particular question of the tough treatment of youth, I was quoting from memory commentary on radio to the effect that she had the backing of the PS rank and file. This does not surprise me, people who think punishment and constraint are not the best way to go about handling banlieue youth are rare. On the question of the 35 hours, Royal seemed to have succeeded in making her point about the perverse effects on weaker employees of the change.

But above all, it's a question of who else to vote for if she's in Round Two against Sarko or Le Pen? Some people will abstain, but most won't. And polls show she has surprising support among far left sympathisers.

Sorry I've no time right now to better substantiate these points, but will try to do so soon.

And of course, I could be wrong...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jun 6th, 2006 at 04:51:07 PM EST
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