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afew, you raise two interesting quetions

1. If she moves into the centre, she can still get left-wing support in the second round.. The question is indeed if anyone in the PS could win over LCR/PCF voters (if indeed they do coalesce behind Besancenot or another candidate); I tend to think not, even staring in the face the prospect of a Sarkozy presidency. I should think a certaian # of PCF voters will make the traditional vote first round to elect/vote second round to eliminate calculus but thats likely only to be about 2% of the overall electorate.

So I wonder if Royale (and presumably others in the PS) are starting to look at a different calculus in which they try to get to 50% without necessarily drawing on the roughly 12% of voters on the left who see themselves as belonging to the "social movement" and reject the PS's "culture of government." Fabius presumably has been going the other way (or at least did last year by campaiging for the no), trying to get to 50% by pulling in "social movement" votes but I tend to think thats fools gold.

2. How much support does Royale have among PS "rank and file"? Your post suggets you think its there, but Migeru (II think) upthread writes of the prospect of Royale not winning a PS primary but then launchign her own campaign. I have again only anecdotal evidence (talking with friends and colleagues) but dont' sense a great deal of support among actual PS regulars, indeed if anything I sense hostility to he.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Jun 6th, 2006 at 04:25:25 PM EST
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