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Re: Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 200 (none / 0)
2006 WAGs (wild ass guesses)  All front month WTI on the day.

1)  Highest touch on WTI at any point intra day
$ 77.75.  Iraq civil war stops exports and sets oil world on edge.

   2.  Year end $55.00

   3.  Year High  $14.5, year end  $9.00.  

Both Henry Hub in normal units.  Nat gas will slump in 2006 as drilling will go wild, Hedges for petchem and fertilizer guys will be gone so production will slump and therefore demand for nat gas drop.  Ditto electricity generation.  nat gas turbines aren't economic at these prices so demand will wane.

4)  $100 WTI won't occur until 2009.  
by HiD on Tue Dec 27th, 2005 at 09:53:41 PM HST

I'm liking the nat gas call -- I'd have never bet we'd be under $6/MMBTU but we are.   Given the US consumer's refusal to stop buying, I'm looking to be in real trouble on the crude bets.  My high is already pierced once and we haven't even had a real hurricane yet or Iraq coming unglued.

by HiD on Sun Jul 9th, 2006 at 07:16:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll have to look mine up.  I think my oil SWAG's (mine are scientific wild ass guesses) are remarkable close to yours, so we're both suffering there,,,but I don't recall making guesses on natural gas.
by wchurchill on Sun Jul 9th, 2006 at 02:26:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Countdown to 100$ oil (19) (none / 0)
1.Highest: $80 due to some unrest in Middle East, but also just normal variation around the mean.
2.Year-end: $58.
3.Natgas highest: $16/mbtu. Year-end: $12/mbtu.  No real event on the highest, just variation around the mean.  
4. $100 per barrel will not be reached in 2006.  Cause is if the year high is $80, I don't think we can mathmatically reach $100 <snark>
Does Louis XIII qualify as the reward?
Thanks for reminding me where this could be found.  That Louis XIII is likely not coming my way.
by wchurchill on Sun Jul 9th, 2006 at 02:31:37 PM EST
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