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I semi-snarked, so I'll do it again.

Is this cyclical effects at work?

Setser certainly presents it as so, basically we're following the same path in increasing imports from China that the US did, just later on. Sounds a lot like the delayed effect where IT investment started later in Europe and so the "productivity gains of IT" came through later than the US too.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 28th, 2006 at 03:34:07 PM EST
You'd need a much longer time frame for EU import/exports to conclude. You can ask Brad, he often answers and provide more data.
by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Aug 28th, 2006 at 04:15:09 PM EST
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Actually, the reason it's a semi-snark is that it's an unprovable. Even if the effect is "semi-cyclical," every economy is a superposition of cycles, just as any signal wave is a superposition of simple waves.

Trouble is, since we don't know what half of the various cycles are, the fourier goes muddy.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 28th, 2006 at 04:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're undermining the exact science of economics again, metatone.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Aug 28th, 2006 at 04:55:52 PM EST
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Terrible, isn't it? Obviously I need to report to the re-education camp.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 28th, 2006 at 05:07:28 PM EST
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When the Fourier goes muddy, you're supposed to mention wavelets and look profound and professorial.

(Apparently this works in engineering and physics too.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Aug 28th, 2006 at 07:05:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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