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I would imagine that you would agree that changes in the way we consume energy have to be permanent in order to provide any real solution. Between issues like rising oil prices and global warming there is certainly a changing public consciousness. However, I can clearly remember the energy crisis of the 1970's. There was a mad rush to DO SOMETHING about it. All those good intentions soon evaporated. Why would it be any different this time?
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 11:04:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but the prices also came down and remained fairly low from the mid-'80s onwards.  They're not going to be low again.  We're already starting to see the effects.  Inflation is now running at over 4%, which will make the Fed seriously consider raising rates.  Bernanke is almost required to do so, at this point.  The core rate is going up, as well, which means that energy prices are now filtering into other goods and services.  That's what the Fed fears.  If this continues, rates will continue to rise, and an already-slowing economy will be pushed into recession.  Wage inflation seems to be starting to kick in, too, from what I've heard (although I haven't looked at the index, honestly), and that will only increase pressure.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 11:15:41 AM EST
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I certainly find it implausible that there will be anything other than a long term rise in energy prices. However, what I question is an assumption that the political response will necessarily be constructive. I can see politicians resorting to all sorts of gimmicks to get the monkey off their backs until they are out of office. The American public has a strong tendency to fall for snake oil and quick fixes.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 11:25:00 AM EST
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I don't see what the snake-oil peddlers might come up with, though.  Falling for quick fixes is not a fault limited to Americans.  It's universal in democratic politics, because the best strategy is almost always to promise everything without addressing costs.  Everyone wants quick fixes, and everyone is prone to forcing themselves to believe that the quick fixes will work.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 11:31:42 AM EST
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Corn oil, shale oil, government subsidies, invade another country with oil that they don't need and we do.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 11:35:15 AM EST
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The invasion idea is clearly a foolish one, anyway.  Production in Iraq is still a joke, as far as I know.  We've handed out subsidies, and, still, the prices continue to rise.

None of those are going to work, and the people will not be fooled by them for long, if at all.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 01:58:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I do not for a moment disagree with you that these are foolish ideas and that they are not going to solve the problem. However, what I do disagree with is your seeming assumption that being a foolish idea means that it won't be tried. I think that politicians have had many sucesses at fooling the majority of the American public for long periods of time. I offer two examples. Vietnam and Iraq.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 02:03:22 PM EST
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The government didn't fool the population for very long on Iraq.  Bush approvals on it fell below 50% even before the election, briefly ticking upwards after Saddam Hussein was captured.  Kerry simply didn't capitalize on it.  Read the polls.  Approval for the Iraq War is higher in Britain than in America.  I don't disagree about Vietnam, but even this eventually left the government in shambles.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 03:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We are still in Iraq with no prospect of leaving. We are now on the verge of becoming more deeply embroiled in conflicts in the middle east. I see no reason to think that America will suddenly become rational and reasonable. It is the very deep seated belief that we are morally entitled to live better than anybody else in the world that has gotten us into such conflicts. It is that same belief that will prevent us from coming to terms with the adjustments necessary to change the patterns of our greedy energy consumption.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 03:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is the very deep seated belief that we are morally entitled to live better than anybody else in the world that has gotten us into such conflicts.

Whose deep-seated belief is that?  Yours?  If it were the case that Americans generally believed that, then wouldn't it have made more sense to close our doors to (say) immigrants of the late-19th to early-20th centuries?  Is that why we continue to allow China and India to develop manufacturing bases at the expense of our workers?  Would the Bush administration attempt to prey upon Americans' idealism when talking about Iraq and democracy if Americans thought in the way you suggest?

And unless I'm missing something, I seem to remember Americans falling for the Iraq War based on WMDs, not based on some load of bullshit about Americans being a greedy people who feel entitled to live better than everyone else.  George W. Bush starts a war in the Middle East, so somehow the high-schooler flipping burgers at McDonald's is greedy?  I don't see it.  But, until you've demonstrated that I'm wrong, speak for yourself, and stop lumping all of us under your mindless little labels.  It's truly sad that so many are so incapable of serious discussion these days.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 04:27:25 PM EST
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It's too bad that some people find it necessary to resort to ad hominem insults.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 05:49:24 PM EST
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Really?  I don't recall attacking you in my comment.  I attacked your labels and your blanket statement about Americans.  But I suppose your comment works if you'd prefer to not address my point.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 4th, 2006 at 09:03:35 AM EST
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