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So now we know: Richard Branson doesn't read the Guardian. On Thursday, it published an extract from my book showing that there are no foreseeable substitutes for aviation fuel (kerosene) that don't currently cause more harm than good. A few hours later, Branson announced that he would be investing £1.6bn in technologies intended to reduce climate change. First among them would be alternative fuels for aircraft.
And that, I'm afraid, is that. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change discovered, "There would not appear to be any practical alternatives to kerosene-based fuels for commercial jet aircraft for the next several decades." There is, in other words, no technofix. The growth in aviation and the need to address climate change cannot be reconciled. In common with all other sectors, aviation's contribution to global warming must be reduced in the UK by some 87% if we are to avoid a 2C rise in global temperatures. Given that the likely possible efficiencies are small and tend to counteract each other, an 87% cut in emissions requires not only that growth stops, but that most of the aeroplanes flying today be grounded. I realise that this is not a popular message, but it is hard to see how a different conclusion could be extracted from the available evidence.
Helen mentioned something about Kerosene from light, sweet crude actually running out in a few years' time, especially on the current consumption trends. So, if Kerosene does run out, Monbiot will get what he wants and planes will be grounded. Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
If we can reduce emissions 25% by just being less stupidly wasteful, and say another 25% through engineering efficiency that leaves us reducing flights to 1/3 the current level. Viable renewable or part renewable fuels could mean we don't have to reduce at all and could in fact increase the trips when planes are needed by cutting out the stupid trips where trains could do the job better and faster.
Specific objectives for European aeronautics include 50% and 80% cuts in CO2 and NOx emissions; respectively, a five-fold reduction in accidents; reduction of noise by 50%; and increased punctuality across the board, meaning 99% of all flights should arrive and depart within 15 minutes of the scheduled time. The updated SRA also puts forward an array of research solutions and technologies to meet and go beyond the ambitions expressed of the `Vision 2020' report.
On 6 April the European Commission adopted a proposal for a new EU programme for Research (FP7). In this frame we have the Joint Technology Initiative (JTI):
A JTI is a new instrument created by the European Commission for the 7th Framework Programme for Research (FP7) to allow large scale and long term public private research partnerships to implement the ambitious research priorities of the Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) which are of such scale that they will require the mobilisation and management of very substantial public and private investment.
The "Clean Sky" JTI is an industry driven 7-year research programme plan for greener generation of European Air Transport that will radically improve impact on the environment......
One of the former projects was a a hydrogen plane : The CRYOPLANE and also the Russians experimented.
So, a lot is happening, but a radical change in the near future cannot be expected. The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
Boeing has come up with several of them and mostly they require lower speeds ( by about 100mph ) and/or implementing the blended wing body (BWB).
I can provide concept images if there is interest.
Even a well designed winglet improves in flight consumption by almost 10% and I still do not understand why there are airplanes that fly without them. Orthodoxy is not a religion.
concept images
The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
On a return flight from London to New York, every passenger produces roughly 1.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide: the very quantity we will each be entitled to emit in a year once the necessary cut in emissions has been made.
Carbon offsets can be purchased by individuals, businesses and governments from a variety of commercial and non-commercial organizations, for as little as $0.10 per ton of carbon dioxide sequestered. For example, the UK government purchased offsets for the air travel required for the 31st G8 summit.
The second reason is that the climate impact of aeroplanes is not confined to the carbon they produce. They release several different kinds of gases and particles. Some of them cool the planet, others warm it. In the upper tropo-sphere, where most large planes fly, hot, wet air from the jet engine exhaust mixes with cold air. As the moisture condenses, it can form "contrails", which in turn appear to give rise to cirrus clouds - those high wispy formations of ice crystals sometimes known as "horsetails". While they reflect some of the sun's heat back into the space, they also trap heat in the atmosphere, especially at night; the heat trapping seems to be the stronger effect. The overall impact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is a warming effect 2.7 times that of the carbon dioxide alone.
Unlike most environmentalists, who have also called for this measure, the government knows perfectly well that fuel tax cannot be imposed on international flights. It is prohibited under international law by article 24 of the 1944 Chicago Convention, which has been set in stone by 4,000 bilateral treaties - making it almost impossible to unpick. Now the government proposes that aviation be incorporated into the European Emissions Trading Scheme. If flights continue to grow, it will break the system.
As far as aircraft engines are concerned, major new efficiencies in the next 20 years or so are a pipedream. The Royal Commission reports that "the basic gas turbine design emerged in 1947. It has been the dominant form of aircraft engine for some 50 years and there is no serious suggestion that this will change in the foreseeable future." It is hard to see how it could be made much more efficient than it is already.
It is prohibited under international law by article 24 of the 1944 Chicago Convention, which has been set in stone by 4,000 bilateral treaties - making it almost impossible to unpick
Secondly, there are discontinuities of various kinds, but we are certainly in a position to trade fuel efficiency for speed of flight on a lot of journeys. Of course, the politics and economics of getting that trade off made is the tricky bit.
That's not the metric needed. On that price, with Monbiot's figures of per-capita emissions per year after the necessary reduction, the entire world's could be bought up for just $650 million. If something is wrong here, it's not Monbiot's argument. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
zeppelins? 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
If people are willing to pay ten times more for the same quantity of oil if it's used for kerosene (among other things), then more oil will go to kerosene, which has few substitutes, than to other fuels which can more easily be replaced.
I don't see how business travellers, who already pay 600-1000 euros to fly within Europe, will need to pay much more even if oil prices increase a lot. So the price increase will not be enough to eliminate that kind of travel as it will fully pay for its way. Low cost is another story, of course. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
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