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I'm in no position to argue one way or the other about whether the abiotic theory is right or wrong and to what extent, but from what I've seen so far, in comments, I would say you need to read the literature. (1) The US and Europe, and probably most other oil producing countries, do not subscribe to the abiotic origin theory and therefore are not looking in the right places (the proponents maintain). So, it's no wonder their output is declining, if you accept the deep origin idea. (2) The other question posed is who stands to gain from maintaining an obsolete theory of oil formation and constant oil shortages?  Answer: The same groups who are not looking for abiotic Oil.  Mageru's comment about the speed of production of new oil or the commercial viability of abiotic oil are legitimate criticisms that have been raised, and good answers can only be realized with research and time.

The downside of unlimited oil would be an unbearable continuation of trends as we see them now. More cars, more pollution, more urban sprawl, global warming, etc, etc.  

 

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Wed Sep 6th, 2006 at 02:51:51 PM EST
I can't see how it can be in the interest of the oil majors to run out of oil. I really can't.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 6th, 2006 at 03:08:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, the trick would be to always just run close to empty, always finding a new source just in time.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Wed Sep 6th, 2006 at 09:31:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think this is true even from a theoretical economics standpoint, but it is certainly false for two reasons:

  1. At a certain profit level governments of the nations oil companies are based in will seize their profits as was threatened by the US government this year (in states where the oil companies aren't already nationalised, anyway).

  2. As the price of oil increases it becomes increasingly tempting for governments of oil producing states to seize assets of foreign oil companies (or nationalise internal privately held producers) as has happened this year in Venezuala and Bolivia. When oil was at $10 a barrel in 1999 this wouldn't have made sense and would have been a loss for governments doing the seizing.

This isn't lost on oil companies, and they will do anything to prevent it from happening. Since oil is the basis of our civilization, it can only be a commodity in the same sense as, say, orange juice when supply can meet demand. If that were to cease being the case, oil would change from a commodity to a strategic asset, and corporate control of oil would end.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 12:21:56 AM EST
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"If that were to cease being the case, oil would change from a commodity to a strategic asset, and corporate control of oil would end."

interesting thought

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 03:38:59 AM EST
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That's what's happening. Energy is leaving the economic realm and going back into the political realm, which it should never have left in the first place as it has always been strategic.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 06:19:38 AM EST
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Hear, hear!

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 08:50:41 AM EST
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I see your point, but see jolado's diary "Peak Oil = Myth..."  One could also argue that the examples of Venezuela and Bolivia relate more to governments with particular socialist/nationalistic slants, not to say it couldn't happen elsewhere.  The other argument would be that multi-national oil companies are already effectively outside the control of most governments, including that of the US.  

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 02:10:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No company is outside government control as long as said companies do not have militaries.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 04:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about Blackwater and friends?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 04:33:49 PM EST
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Well indeed, I didn't mean to imply that it doesn't exist. I also vaugely recall some discussion here a while back about mercenaries employed in Africa to protect oil assests. It's a worrying trend but not a primary theme of control in the big picture quite yet.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Sep 7th, 2006 at 05:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok. Full disclosure: Although my background is in geology, I've consciously shunned to be funnelled into the oil industry. Hence, it's more a dish on the side for me.

The question regarding Peak Oil is better answered by others, so I won't go there. I'm sympathetic toward your arguments, but it has been abundantly argued here that the (biotic) oil reserve has seen its peak.

Nevertheless. Although contrarian views is what science needs, I've already some serious problems with a number of Dr. Gold's exclamations.

First: Hydrocarbon gas clouds on other planets isn't oil. That they can form there is a non-argument to me that abiotic oil can form here.

Second:


The official theory of the development of coal will not accept that reality, since human beings were not around when anthracite coal was formed.

This story is also run by creationist Ed Conrad and is wholly debunked by now. Last I knew, it was far from certain that the found "skull" was even bone. Eat your heart out here.

"The coal we dig is hard, brittle stuff. It was once a liquid, because we find embedded in the middle of a six-foot seam of coal such things as a delicate wing of some animal or a leaf of a plant. They are undestroyed, absolutely preserved; with every cell in that fossil filled with exactly the same coal as all the coal on the outside. A hard, brittle coal is not going to get into each cell of a delicate leaf without destroying it. So obviously that stuff was a thin liquid at one time which gradually hardened."

Yes, because it was a thick bog from decomposing organic materials? Occam's Razor anyone?

The theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not a vague, qualitative hypothesis, but stands as a rigorous analytic theory within the mainstream of the modern physical sciences.

Oh? But I was never even educated on it, while my alma mater had a certain reputation to keep up. But everyone has its flaws, of course.

So if abiotic hydrocarbons are from another source, where does it come from and how is it able to concentrate so locally? Can Gold offer a mechanism of its deposition and localisation? And how is it possible that there hasn't been found any distinctive criteria between biotic and abiotic oil?

So, in short, I highly doubt Gold's position. For the benefit of the planet, I hope he's wrong, too.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Sep 6th, 2006 at 04:59:06 PM EST
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The instructive wikipedia entry on abiotic oil reports that Gold died in 2004. How can he still be interviewed in 2006?

But I certainly learned something new, Gringo. It seems I asked the wrong question: the discussion shouldn't be about whether abiotic oil is possible, but on what scale abiotic oil is possible. Still, colour me largely sceptical on large scale abiotic oil production.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Sep 6th, 2006 at 05:28:37 PM EST
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I think the Dr. Gold quotes in the current (Sep 5, 2006) article were from his 1999 book. I don't recall any other sources with live interviews past 2004.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Wed Sep 6th, 2006 at 09:36:07 PM EST
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