People tend to forget that Peak Oil is not so much about the amount of recoverable oil - that is a function of price, and the trade-offs in relation to Energy used to get at it.

But Peak Oil as a peak in the level of production is a mathematical fact, and I believe that "economic growth" is now running up against this level.

The showdown is therefore between the global reserve currency ie deficit-based Fëd IOU's aka Dollars and the value of oil.

Because Oil is not priced in Dollars: Dollars are priced in Oil.

The absolute level of oil price is down to supply and demand, and since spare capacity is low and can only get lower as growth continues it really is not something Suppliers can do much about other than count their money.

The true cartel is the unholy alliance of intermediary oil traders and "Wall Street Refiners" who, among other things, own the major exchanges. Particularly ICE.

These guys manipulate the spot and benchmark derivatives markets systemically. Volatility is, I believe, far higher than that warranted by events. You only have to look at who is making the money from trading energy to see who the culprits are.

"Unacceptable Market Manipulation" is a US felony: that implies that there is a such a thing as "acceptable" market manipulation, and I guess that is exactly the level to which oil trading has sunk (or maybe it never rose above it)

Chris Cook

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson