Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I think if the "surge" is perceived to work (and that is a bodybag counting exercise), there's a chance they'd be mad enough to bomb Iran. But not otherwise, and zero chance of a ground invasion under any circumstances.

You can forget any US based resistance for the time being, but I do think that the Russia, China, Far East etc nexus is another matter entirely.

I could see a sort of reverse Suez coming here.

ie in 1956 the US told the UK "we are going to pull the economic plug on you unless you stop playing silly buggers"

Same applies here, but with the boots on other feet.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 07:19:53 AM EST
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So, tell me... has anyone in the US noticed that we've been bombing Somalia for the last two days?
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 07:59:05 AM EST
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Getting even for Black Hawk Down!

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 08:02:52 AM EST
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I had a Joke theory that George was working through a list of percieved insults to America in reverse in the style of a schoolboy bully. So it would be Iran next then Vietnam, then Korea then Germany (twice) then mexico and finally ending up with the UK.

I can't believe I missed Somalia out, (and I suppose I'd better add Grenada and Cuba in at some stage)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 04:44:14 PM EST
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by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 08:26:43 AM EST
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The entire push against the Somali Islamic group has been well covered on cable news.  The 1/2 hour national evening news -- I've no idea, haven't watched those in a decade.  Prob got 30 seconds.
by HiD on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 05:02:03 PM EST
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What I got of it so far, the only support for the "surge" is coming from Laura and Barney, maybe McCain (and I wouldn't be sure of the two last ones).

The surge is anyway to little, to late. The US would need about 120 000 men only in Baghdad to really clamp down on the insurgency...

Anyway it would mean taking sides in the civil war, which means that the Saudis would be fueling the Iraqi Sunnis with more support...

The outcome of this is not good for the US no matter what...

There won't be a regular invasion of Iran of course. But there might be an air/sea assault. Iran will probably retaliate by turning the Shiite lose on the US in Iraq... plus some blocking of the Hormuz detroit...

and your scenario becomes then more and more credible

by oldfrog on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 10:33:45 AM EST
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the over 50 armchair warriors are on board in some numbers.  (the fox spews demo)
by HiD on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 04:55:31 PM EST
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