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there is a pattern in French presidential elections that has practically never been broken where ONE of the favorites doesn't make it to the 2nd run.

You're leaving me scratching my head there. Who -- beyond Jospin in 2002, obviously -- are the "favourites" who didn't make it to Round Two?

I expect you'll say Balladur in 1995, but Chirac was all the same the leader of the main party and the natural candidate of the right. And in elections before that? Chirac-Mitterand 1988, Giscard-Mitterand 1981, Giscard-Mitterand 1974... You'd have to go back to 1969 and say that it was a surprise Jacques Duclos didn't make it to the second round, which is arguable.

If there's a pattern, it seems to me one in which the leaders of the two main left-right blocs end up in Round Two. That was why 2002 was such a bombshell.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 11:46:19 AM EST
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