What we are witnessing (through rips in the curtain of official secrecy) may be an example of what the Germans call the flucht nach vorne ? the "flight forward." This refers to ta situation in which an individual or institution seeks a way out of a crisis by becoming ever more daring and aggressive (or, as the White House propaganda department might put it: "bold") A familiar analogy is the gambler in Vegas, who tries to get out of a hole by doubling down on each successive bet.

Classic historical examples of the flucht nach vornes include Napoleon's attempt to break the long stalemate with Britain by invading Russia,the decision of the Deep South slaveholding states to secede from the Union after Lincoln's election, and Milosevic's bid to create a "greater Serbia" after Yugoslavia fell apart.

As these examples suggest, flights forward usually don't end well ? just as relatively few gamblers emerge from a doubling-down spree with their shirts still on their backs.

But of course, most gamblers don't have the ability to call in an air strike on the casino. For Bush, or the neocons, or both, regime change in Iran not only may appear doable, it may also look like the only way out of the spectacular mess they have created in Iraq.

http://web.archive.org/web/20060419030725/billmon.org/archives/002390.html

the whole article is worth reading

according to my opinion the Bush administration/neocons have two options :

1. surge and try to maintain "status quo" until next elections, then leave the Democrats with the mess just to blame them that they "stabbed America in the back" when they were about to win...

2. escalate and thus give new options for the next elections.

But the the following events might not be dictated by RATIONAL elements. Billmon is right in making those historical parallells. It's often the way it goes...