The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
If people are living off debt higher interest rates will indeed dampen demand. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Decreases in interest rates mean that more people borrow to buy assets.
Result - ASSET price inflation, which COULD feed through into RETAIL price inflation via equity release, although I doubt it, because IMHO increased demand for consumer goods using this released equity is unlikely to drive up prices. Ther's no shortage of supply.
However, I believe that wherever interest rates are in excess of the costs of bank administration and of borrower defaults then that excess is de facto inflationary. This is because of the deficit base of our money supply. ie there's virtually no "money's worth" backing it.
If I am wrong, I would like to know in what respect.
In simple terms - and I do not use Economic Speak here like Factor Inputs yada yada - if all else remains the same and a business's costs increase because its borrowing becomes more expensive, then this will lead to the business increasing its prices if it can, and hence to retail price inflation.
So in summary, it appears to me as a Bear of Little Economic Brain that interest increases are inflationary in respect of RETAIL prices but may operate to reduce inflation in ASSET prices. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
If there's no shortage of supply for consumer goods, what determines their prices? "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Don't they also mean that more people -- the "middling sort" rather than the "masters of the universe" variety -- borrow to start/expand businesses? (If so, which is there more of: borrowing to buy assets, or borrowing to invest in businesses?) Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
Example: at least on effect depends on the number of outstanding fixed-rate loans vs floating-rate loans.
Simple reasoning: if you're a shop selling groceries and your monthly rent is indexed (because of borrowing or other reason) on floating rates, if rates go up you'll immediately raise prices.
On the other side, if your rent is indexed on fixed rates, you don't care directly about the interest rate rise until the next investiment decision.
Given that most families have mortgages because they want to owna house,a rise in interest rates curtails strongly the demand. Less demand results in acooling of the economy and adjustement of prices int he production sector.
High interest rates will hopefully reduce also strongly the demand of houses and stabilize housing prices bringin asset inflation and the overheated construction sector to a more reasonable path.
HEre I rest my case that each coutnry is completley different and that in other countries increases in interest rates may cause inflation... (as in Spain in the 80 probably)
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
by Oui - Dec 9 6 comments
by Oui - Dec 5 9 comments
by gmoke - Nov 28
by Oui - Dec 94 comments
by Oui - Dec 96 comments
by Oui - Dec 815 comments
by Oui - Dec 620 comments
by Oui - Dec 612 comments
by Oui - Dec 59 comments
by Oui - Dec 44 comments
by Oui - Dec 21 comment
by Oui - Dec 171 comments
by Oui - Dec 16 comments
by gmoke - Nov 303 comments
by Oui - Nov 3012 comments
by Oui - Nov 2838 comments
by Oui - Nov 2713 comments
by Oui - Nov 2511 comments
by Oui - Nov 243 comments
by Oui - Nov 221 comment
by Oui - Nov 22
by Oui - Nov 2119 comments