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By the way, Bavarian polls. The ordering is a bit annoying, one should compare the numbers of successive polls by the same pollster, not list all polls in the same list.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 18th, 2007 at 04:53:55 PM EST
So if CSU ends up without a majority what is the likely coalition?

I guess the obvious one would be CSU-FPD, but I ask since long time rule can produce some strange dynamics.

In Sweden, in some local elections the Social democrats held majority for a long time and once they lost it they acted so pompously in the negotiations that the result has been everybody-but-the-soc.dem. coalitions. And that includes every party from the communists to the marketistas.

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by A swedish kind of death on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 06:53:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it depends heavily on how many votes go to parties under the entrance limit. If, say, the Left Party brings up 4% and two far-right parties 2% each, and the rest another 1%, the CSU could still get an absolute majority with around 44% (if I remember the rules correctly). If desertion of the CSU also swells the ranks of at least one dwarf enough, then maybe even a situation with CSU+FDP not enough could result.

But, I don't really expect a permanent dent in CSU's fortunes... except if Huber carries his economic liberalism too far too fast.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 09:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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