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Keynes' tip jar brought to us by Walter Heller "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/gang8/message/11220
For my own part, my intuition is that the Metaphysical assumptions underpinning all schools of Economics simply do not reflect Reality.
So no matter how wonderful an intellectual edifice is erected upon them, if the foundations are weak, it won't stand up.
And as far as I can see, none of them do since all are based upon defining Value in one way or another, usually as Price.
In my untutored view it is only possible to proceed on the assumption that "Value" is indefinable, or definable only in relative terms.
My view of Economics is that it may be described as the "Physics of Value" (as opposed to Energy) and if we take such a Metaphysics of Value as a starting point then we might get somewhere. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Some economists, as you say, take that and make the unwarranted jump to 'Value = Money.'
But look at it another way. IF we take Quality as the metaphysical basis of Reality and we assert 'Value is an individuals response to Quality as embedded, or reflected, in a specific object¹' AND, in order for an Actor or Agent to gain physical possession of that object they have to fork over $3 THEN the Economic Value of that object has to be at least $3 to the Valuer.
Using this, we can go further since the Economic Value of the object is $3 to the seller and worth {$3 < x >y} to the buyer. By stating '{$3 < x}' we correctly, IMNSHO, symbolize the Value of an object, expressed as Economic Value, to the buyer is a range of measuration of all possible numbers x and y can take.
Looking at the seller, there is a minimum at which the object will be sold, the asking price, and the top price of the object which is infinity! If you're selling something for $3 and someone offers $2,000 would you refuse? Neither would anybody else!
So a (more) complete equation, note the lowest buying price is zero, is:
x < sp > Infinity = 0 < bp > y
Where:
x is the lowest selling price sp is the actual selling price bp is the actual buying price y is the highest buying price
BUT!
When we take about Quality and Value we cannot make use of the '=' sign. Why? Because for the transaction to take place the seller has to Value (MOQ) the buying price more than the object and the buyer has to Value (MOQ) the object more than the selling price. Thus, it is an asymmetrical transaction -- in more ways than one.
So let's restate:
(x < sp > Infinity) > (0 < bp > y) -- Seller's Side
(x < sp > Infinity) < (0 < bp > y) -- Buyer's Side
And it is obvious my little mathematical description is unsolvable unless the variables are taken as Second-Order (minimum) AND Statistical AND Probable.
So, unless I screwed-up somewhere -- the fox is in the henhouse.
******************* ¹ So I can avoid getting into Being and Action (Verbs.) ;-) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
while finance capitalism is even more insane than industrial capitalism -- insanity of an even more abstracted, refined, and goofy order -- the fundamental disconnect where little details like entropy and thermodynamics are ignored, where the technomass is privileged over (and esterminates) the biomass, happens in the industrial model itself, whose materialist Utopian promise underlies both capitalism and communism. The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
Firstly price and value are quantifications of individual desire. They can be time-based in the futures market sense. But they lack any wider social or ecological context. No system which is based on gimme gimme can be worth much, except possibly to children.
Secondly the concept of price is meaningless when relationships are assymetric. If a corporation decides that an object will cost £x, individuals have no bargaining power to change that cost. In the grossest sense they can either buy or not buy, but the price is not only set for them, but desire is artificially stimulated using media brainwashing techniques.
Economics in the real world is based almost entirely on these assymetrical power relationships. Convenient fictions about markets and rational agents are delusional, because all markets include a bias that favours some traders over others.
Finally, economics reduces all human transactions to a price and states that this price is the only important consideration.
The horror of this system isn't only that it's outdated and obsolete, or even that it's a major factor in the coming eco-crash.
The true horror is that so many humans seem to take the monster at face value, treating it affectionately, and accepting its diktats without questioning them.
I have been working on a diary like this one about possible interpretation/explanations of ecopnomic reality but instead of having a clear outcome it was just bits and pieces. I am amzaed how you managed to transmit an excellent idea: economic structures were pursued from economic departments.. so economic visions determined the outcome structure.
As you may know I have long defended that the only (or well the most) relevant force, the main driving force, are myths, discussions , anaratives about realitites.
Symbolic anthropology shows that reality adapts to symbols and myths .. because there is no other way to understand reality.. so an economic shift and paradigm can change reality but the mere fact of looking at from a different perspective (Friedman vission was a self-fulfilled prophecy)..Unfortunaltey economic reality has other effects on the human structure.
Maybe this statement is too strong for a reality-based community, but at least I think it is very important that we recall that at least economic thinging and mythology can indeed change reality structures.
I am amazed... a diary which is very good food for thought. I loved it.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
Plus I loathe OOL's. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Not sure why I did that. Most of it will be obsolete soon.
If I understand you rightly, I have to agree: Financial Capitalism has moved us into an era of economic degeneration--"looting" is the word I usually use--as formerly productive infrastructure is liquidated, in which solutions to our environmental and economic problems can not be implemented, even if solutions exist.
The earlier era of Industrial Capitalism was indeed productive, and technically competent, although it had other faults.
Can we get those two virtues back?
I think not, because it was just the web of interconnectivity of technical competence in the service of production that the era of finance Capitalism has so effectively destroyed. We still have science, but it is science for hire--for example, leading edge genetic research is devoted to destroying and thereby monopolizing the human food supply. It will never do a thing to ameliorate the food famines we will be facing.
Those who wish to do good, rather than open evil, are like Goddard--in your story--not von Braun.
But Industrial Capitalism met its end for a reason, and that reason goes back to the 1970s, with the decision in 1980. Reason? Just this: Industrial Capitalism was based on ever-rising energy use, and by 1980 it was clear that that trend would end.
That meant Industrial Capitalism must end.
The alternatives? 1) Find a way for the economy to reward--"incentivize," as they like to say--efficiency of resource use and de-consumption, or 2) loot it all out in a final binge.
Hate to say it, we did not choose option # 1.
So now some of us realize that it was all a mistake, an even bigger mistake than we perhaps knew at the time, and we want to change the choice.
It can't be done.
What can be done? I am not sure. Two things go immediately together: Wake up people if you can, and start thinking about food--gardening, community gardening, community supported organic agriculture, and the like. Food comes before everything else, and food is going to be a problem.
What about the grid? What about water? These things are going to be problems as well, but I am not yet seeing answers. The main difficulty in thinking about these things is that too much of our existing infrastructure depends on tecnologies that have already been or are being gutted--that are already beyond us, and lie in the past. What will actually be available as technical tools for solving problems? Less than we think, is the only sure answer.
Strategically, I think creating small groups that can evolve new solutions and recover old knowledge are key. But solutions will have to be more low tech than high, because the supporting infrastructure is not there. They will have to be simple and reproducible. The Fates are kind.
I understand Industrial Capitalism crashed after the 1973 and 1979 spikes in oil prices but this was FAR from a necessary or predictable outcome. In England and USA, the cultural biases against technology and industrialization made it MUCH easier to just "give up" on an industrial solution.
In Europe and the Nordic countries, where engineering is treated with far greater respect, there have been successful rear guard actions against the plunderers (the penchant for the Nobel Committee to award prizes to the Finance Capitalists notwithstanding). I have not seen good numbers, but I would make a serious bet that a vast majority of successful green technologies are designed and engineered in Northern Europe / Scandinavia. "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
One of my key themes is to point out that there are no influential politicians (with the possible exception of Al Gore) who are willing to discuss changing the current economic model. This model is built upon the assumption that capitalist societies need continual growth and ignores all the externalities, especially resource depletion and pollution.
The needed reformulation has been undertaken by a small group of ecological economists led by Herman Daly. He has been arguing about the fallacies of the unlimited growth model for 35 years without much visible affect. There seem to be a small number of younger economists now following in his footsteps but they still don't have much "traction".
If you are not familiar with his work here are a few links (shortest to longest): http://dieoff.org/page88.htm http://www.earthrights.net/docs/daly.html http://www.feasta.org/documents/feastareview/daly.htm
He has been good at discussing the problems, but less successful at proposing solutions.
I write on this frequently myself from the point of view that changing from a growth model to a steady-state economy will eliminate most of the mechanisms of finance capitalism that you have highlighted.
Here's a sample of one of my essays: Planning for a Steady-State (No Growth) Society
As to posting on dKos, please do, but one can never tell what will catch on, my discussions of issues like this get little notice while Jerome's are a big hit. Perhaps you will be one of the popular ones. The issue certainly needs to be brought to as large an audience as possible. Policies not Politics ---- Daily Landscape
I wonder if in theological terms it's possibly more the difference between Practical Capitalism and Symbolic Capitalism - Symbolic Capitalism being the purer and more holy of the two, because it's untainted by the dirt and sweat of physical reality.
Symbolic Capitalism is Platonic Capitalism - rule by numbers and rarefied abstract concepts. The numbers are defined by the rules of the game. They define the aims of the game. They're purely theoretical.
I found a fascinating and disturbing quote by a UK rail boss this week, in which he said that it was 'nonsense' to criticise the UK's insane franchising and privatisation system because the UK has 'the best growth of any railway in Europe.'
That quote is so wrong in so many ways that I really have no idea where to start with it. But it's indicative of the 'growth above all else' mind set that underpins symbolic capitalism.
As long as there's growth, nothing else matters. Not only is nothing more important than growth, but nothing else can even be considered as a factor - except possibly grudgingly if the 'costs' make enough noise that you have to throw them a bone to get them to shut up for a while.
So in the case of rail, high growth for the last couple of years trumps that the fact that the shiny new market-driven symbolic system relies on public subsidies that are five times greater in real terms than when the railways were nationalised, and provides a service that offers poorer service availability and longer travel times.
The whole thing really is quite mad.
And it's a stupid canard anyway, because passenger figures plummeted after a few high profile accidents. So a big part of the 'growth' is really just the process of returning to pre-disaster levels.
Self-serving and partial, but the insight is not completely silly. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I know the phrase is a commonplace in the Finance 'biz' but it's sloppy terminology leading, as laboratory experiments have shown, to neo-liberalism in rats. (lol) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
What's the impact on GDP of guaranteeing every citizen who wants it a high quality post-18 education?
What's the influence on GDP of a Van Gogh painting which was practically worthless while he was alive but now changes hands for tens or hundreds of millions?
What's the impact on GDP of the homeless?
Without a concept of cultural value, to balance out book value, conventional accounting is socially meaningless.
It's exactly the same relationship as that between Matter and anti-Matter: we have Value and anti-Value. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Socially irrelevant, I'll give you that, to an extent. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
"Price" and "Value" Oscar Wilde had the measure of when he defined the Cynic. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
'Price' means nothing, except that someone is prepared to pay X for an item or service at a particular point in time.
GDP comes from aggregating all of these transactions with some rather nominal national weightings and producing a measure of something which supposedly correlates to wealth.
But if a social relationship or physical process can't be reduced to a transaction with a price, it doesn't appear on the books, and in economic terms it's invisible.
The big problem - the one that I haven't seen any economist try to tackle, from Keynes downwards - is how to explicitly include these relationships so that they do appear as factors.
Most people when asked will tell you that it's these social and cultural relationship that define real value - in the sense of what makes life worth living.
So where are these values in economic theory? There's occasionally a bit of handwaving about quality of life, but there's no explicit concern with these relationships. In fact they're often considered a dangerous distraction.
This is why businesses allowed to lay people off to pump up the bottom line. The social costs are very real. But they're only calculated indirectly. And even then, it's not the businesses that pay for them.
The point is that these costs are real. You can't dismiss them as subjective because the concept of price is equally subjective - it's one microscopically narrow view of one very tiny subset of human interactions. And if anything these other transactions are more real to people's experience than anything in classical economic theory.
So not including them in a theory of wealth is dysfunctional. Saying they're hard to measure is irrelevant if there's no serious attempt being made to measure them and include them in policy decisions at all.
And in the meantime we're seeing endless, and quite possibly terminal, examples of that dysfunctionality happening today.
The corollary is that if you measure the right things, many problems become simpler because you have a direct handle on them. What we have now is rather too much energy expended on one-dimensional measures like inflation and unemployment and GDP and interest rates, papering over a lingering sense of unease that something isn't right in our culture, but it's impossible to clarify or quantify what it is.
A saner system would reverse that.
More than that - my guess is that a healthy culture is far less likely to have problems like inflation and unemployment anyway.
If relationships are functional and inclusive rather than predatory, a lot of the supposed problems in economic theory will very likely vanish, because the system as a whole will be operating at a much more intelligent and spontaneously organised level.
It's not that the work has to be truly productive. It's more that it has to be busy. And the more busy the better.
The reason for this declining return to scale that gross material wealth°, past a certain point, isn't the chief limit on the innovations and refinements that constitute increasing (technological) quality. Cultural support for these, and available educated brains, are stronger factors. Research budgets are largely spent to pay for those brains, and their number doesn't increase in proportion to gross material wealth per capita. Cost of equipment is more relevant, but much of the important work isn't greatly equipment-intensive -- it involves designing and modifying things that are being made anyway.
The weakness of causality in one direction is masked by the strong correlation that results from causality in the other direction. That is, creativity and innovation may seem to follow from high levels of gross material wealth, when they instead enable it (for better or worse).
------------ ° By "gross material wealth", I mean a measure of wealth that gives little weight to quality of life in a broad sense. Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
On the other hand, the French gained control of goods that defined the "good life" sometime during Louis XIV and have managed to maintain their hold on most of this market since. So designing an economy to produce excellence is obviously a superior strategy.
But since we are touting national economic characteristics--allow me to add a few.
The Japanese believe that there is no detail too small and that nothing is ever finished and that improvement is always possible. This makes for incredible products--especially complex ones like cars and video cameras.
The Germans and Nordics seem to concentrate their economic energy on being excellent at the invisible details. If you have never heard of the product, have no idea what it does, and it is somehow critically important for an industrial society--these guys probably build it better than anyone.
And of course, how can we ignore USA industrialization. In 1971, I heard a guy shout to a group of volunteers who were trying to organize a production of HMS Pinafore, "People! TRY to do this right! But if you cannot do it well, do it BIG!" I have never heard the USA philosophy of everything said better. "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
As long as the money supply is growing British Rail, or whatever, has to grow at the effective rate of the increase just to stay the same - in PPP. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
This concept requires far more thought and energy to digest that I can give in a quick comment.
But I really like it! "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
I think your distinction between Energy Capital and Energy Income is a fundamental one that deserves more exposure. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Actually, from many thousands of kilometers away and sketchy information, my take on the EU constitutional vote was that it wasn't so much a rejection of a necessary (?) constitution, but rather a rejection of Maastricht and Nice. Of the two, Maastricht was by FAR the worse--it was nothing less than the end of modern Europe--no WONDER people were so angry. "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
The problem with that vote, of course, is that in practice they voted against the new bits that they usually liked (strengthened European Parliament, charter of human rights, etc...) but in FAVOR of the Maastricht and Nice Treaty, because these remain in force in the absence of the new Constitution.
They voted against their explicit goals, something that I still am angry about. And they make euroskepticism good politics and most of our new leaders are thus weakly pro-European, which only compounds the problem, as national selfishness (which was never low, starting with the French) has vastly increased. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I claimed in the movie that the energy we use is solar energy--it is just that most of it is STORED solar energy. According to the video, the only way to get to a society where we can live on our solar income is to invest in technology built with our solar capital.
This may sound a bit complex for children but it was VERY easy to bring these ideas down to that level. "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
Moreover, if energy producing assets are kept in Trust/Community Ownership, with Investor and Manager Partners receiving proportional shares and the balance remaining with the Community, then we could see an "Energy Dividend" or basic Energy Income to all.
In fact I am not the only one to advocate an International Energy Clearing Union, but I believe that this is the logical candidate for the basis of global trade in the future when the dollar reaches the end of the road.
Domestic trade, I think, will be based upon the flows of property rentals.
But in both cases we are essentially talking about monetary flows - of "Dynamic Value", where "Value" is "Money's Worth" such as energy. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
This is why USA can get away with recklessly "printing" more currency. So long as a dollar can still buy oil, it is valuable. (If you want to read the whole argument, follow the links to the book below.)
This situation with the USA dollar is absurd, of course. But I really LIKE the idea that money is some sort of representative of energy. Because this means that whenever we can gather solar energy in some physically efficient manner (such as with wind turbines) we are doing more than inventing a solution for atmospheric carbon overload, we are also validating the currency. "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
The intro would basically be "techno wrote this excellent diary here (link), and s/he has kindly agreed to let le crosspost it here. Everything below is from him/her."
If you have anything else in mind, I'll be happy to do it. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I HAVE posted this essay on my web page so if you can link to it, I would appreciate it. (Getting it posted is why I took so long to respond here.)
http://www.elegant-technology.com/kossack_econ_1.html
Thanks Jerome
Please give me a heads-up when you intend to do this so I can stand by to respond to comments. And let me know if you need anything. "Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"
IS HUMANITY FATALLY SUCCESSFUL? (PDF)
The arguments about humans despoiling their environment are not new, but there are some nice charts illustrating it. The author, William E. Rees, seems to have been the one to develop the concept of the ecological footprint. According to the data provided the human race exceed the carrying capacity of the world somewhere around 1970 (his figure 5).
He proposes a new "myth" to replace the current one of continual growth... Policies not Politics ---- Daily Landscape
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