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A very intersting article (in french) about the franco-german growth differential (if you don't read french just look at the nice graphs). The funny thnig is that a totally wrong statement was made before jjournalist and politicians and no one corrected.
by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jan 22nd, 2007 at 06:06:57 PM EST
This deserves a diary, Laurent.

« Pourquoi l'Allemagne, malgré le poids de l'ancienne Allemagne de l'Est, malgré l'Euro fort, réussit à avoir une croissance beaucoup plus élevée que la notre ? »

"Why has Germany's growth been much higher than our own, despite the heavy legacy of East Germany, and despite the strong euro?"

Real GDP Growth

Real per capita GDP Growth

I guess Ms. Moryoussef and her journalist cohorts might be the source of all this fuss about the euro in France?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Mon Jan 22nd, 2007 at 07:46:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw the show and reacted to that too, but I think there is a basic misunderstanding here. If I remember well the discussion was about the ECB and the Euro. Both Sarkozy and Royal have accused the "insensitivity" of "Europe" for being responsible in losses in employment because of the high value of the Euro compared to the dollar, making export more difficult (thus the need to put the independence of the ECB in question). Needless to say that this is mostly demagoguery, the typical blaming of one's shortcomings on "Brussels".

But German export volumes are beating all records, compared to France (I think there was a graph about that on ET not that long ago) despite the fact that both countries are using the same currency.

A verbatim of the show would be needed to ensure that the question was not about the German BNP, but about the exports. Because in that case the question makes sense and the answers from Montebourg and Barnier more "plausible", even If I think that they both wrong, guessing that if the Germans succeed in exporting much more than France - despite a high Euro - is because their products are more competitive or maybe more needed than the respective French ones, or because the French don't export the kind of stuff the Germans do.

Maybe some of the economists on ET could explain that for us...

by oldfrog on Mon Jan 22nd, 2007 at 08:06:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you very much for pointing out that crucial difference.

if the Germans succeed in exporting much more than France - despite a high Euro - is because their products are more competitive or maybe more needed than the respective French ones, or because the French don't export the kind of stuff the Germans do.

Maybe some of the economists on ET could explain that for us...

I second that wholeheartedly.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Mon Jan 22nd, 2007 at 08:30:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
External balance of goods and services - Current prices - Millions of euro - SA

The external balance of goods and services (ESA 1995, 8.68) is the difference between exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services. If positive, the economy exports more goods and services than it imports, and vice versa. Values are seasonally adjusted (SA). The ESA 95 (European System of Accounts) regulation may be referred to for more specific explanations on methodology.

You can click on the image to get the original (larger) graphic.  But basically the left side is Germany and the right side is France, from 2003Q4 to 2006Q3.

(Created from http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/QueenPortletized/display.do?screen=graphicref&output=PNG&la nguage=en&product=_SHORTIES&root=theme0/shorties/euro_na/na_exbal/na050)

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Mon Jan 22nd, 2007 at 10:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When Germany is doing bad, it means that the eurozone is fucked, and when Germany is doing well, it means that France is fucked.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 03:31:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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