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If a pair of cities is well-served by airplane routes and they're less than 700 km apart, it's past time to upgrade them to a high speed line.

Indeed. All good points, but you then use it for Brit-bashing:

So when a country like England decides to expand an airport and not build any high speed lines, you know they're ideologically against trains, but anyways.

The record of continental Europe on resisting airport expansions and air traffic expansion is not exactly unalloyed. Witness the debate over low cost airlines. Or the several held-up or delayed high-speed rail projects, including (since Chirac's reelection) in France.

Meanwhile, what you wrote about Britain (especially in the collective) is wrong. The one big anti-train PM was Thatcher. Neither predecessors nor successors were like her. On the other hand, her successors insisted on PPP schemes, which was tried big with the CTRL, which was started by the Major government and finished now. (Unfortunately the PPP model is spreading across Europe.)

That no more high-speed lines were built so far in Britain has two reasons. One is the capital effects of past policies. An upgrade of the West Coast Mainline (WCML) was deemed cheaper with little loss in benefits. (Austria four-tracks and upgrades its own Westbahn, Germany does the same to the right-shore Rhine Valley line to Basel, and Switzerland to its busiest sections West of Zürich with the same thinking.) But (not the least because of problems with implementing moving-block signalling) the WCML price tag tripled even while the project was scaled down. At the same time, the original rail track operator collapsed financially in the wake of post-Hatfield upgrades. So building long-distance rail doesn't start with a blank sheet, but a big minus.

The other reason is that building a new high-speed line across Central and Northern England is a much bigger challenge than building one across rural France or Spain. The population and existing infrastructure denisty is higher, while the settlement structure that has to be given rail access more complex. (The WCML is not really a single line but a whole network of parallel strands.) Similar challenges are the reason that Germany's high-speed network has so many gaps, or that the Japanese one (which at least can capitalise on a stretched country on which one trunk line suffices) is so expensive. Still, various plans of true high-speed lines are discussed in Britain. (I'd guess one along the ECML is most likely to be built first.)

As a final note, while high-speed rail is the answer to air travel, the development of shorter distances shouldn't be forgotten (as is often done in Europe). Infrastructure-wise, it's the Swiss railways that are in the best shape, and they have zero 300 km/h tracks. Their policy is not of a Great Leap Forward, but incremental change, which results in several smaller enhancements along the network.

combined train+air market share

Actually, on many routes, those percentages are even exceeded. There are four-plus-hour routes beating planes. The TGV to the Mediterranean  achieves shares in excess of two-thirds on three-hour relations.

countries should forbid flights between pairs of cities connected in under 3 hours.

Fully agreed. Though, if a country spends on building a rail line and traffic starts in open competition, it can force airways to cancel flights for lack of passengers. This happened again on the London-Brussels and to a lesser extent London-Paris routes after Britain built the CTRL.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 09:49:32 AM EST
CTRL seems to have worked, so it's probably one of the few functional examples of a PPP that hasn't been a total disaster.

But I think you underestimate ideological hostility to trains in the UK. Rail has been the UK's biggest and most horrific soap opera in recent years. There is no evidence of strategic planning, and plenty of evidence that the Treasury has been trying to treat it was a way of clawing cash back.

As Afew said in a different diary, it's all about political calculation. Air is being developed for political reasons - it's a sop to the peasants who can holiday somewhere sunny. Road is all about Personal FreedomTM.

Rail has neither of those advantages, and is seen as a huge cash sink - which of course of is, but mostly because of privatised inefficiencies and marketista nonsense.

While it's true the UK has practical problems with new lines that don't apply on the mainland, that didn't stop CTRL being a big success. So if the traffic is there - and it would be for a North/South route, and probably for a London/Cardiff route too - the right strategy can still make financial sense.

The point of all this being that actually getting people from A to B matters much less than the financial and political calculation that surround policy. And in the UK, policy is clearly hostile to rail, even if no one has come out and said as much in public.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 10:27:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not only the last few years, rail in the UK has been actively sabotaged for the past 50 years. It's quite sad.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 10:38:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
CTRL seems to have worked, so it's probably one of the few functional examples of a PPP that hasn't been a total disaster.

That's true, though note, that that was probably possible because the price tag grew into the sky in advance, so it was easier to not miss it.

Regarding policy chaos, political support for air and car-freedom, and viewing rail as a cash sink, I actually agree, but unfortunately Britain is not at all special in that. Since the middle nineties, in the EU, I would count only Spain as enthusiastic rail-builder, and even there, it's only long-distance and suburban, and roads and airports are built at an equally frenzied pace. Tax-free plane fuel and taxed rail travel is also an Europe-wide phenomenon, and this institutional 'market distortion' is a policy for half a century.

Also worth to mention: in some countries rail becomes a cash sink by design, due to corrupt connections between builders and politicians, which result in some pharaonic infrastructure with overcapacity, while branch lines that could draw passengers rot nearby. Top excamples are Italy and Greece.

But Britain indeed does stand out in privatised inefficiencies and marketista nonsense. Yet, unfortunately, not as an exception, but as a model to follow, a failed model to follow (I view it as thre best example that neoliberal dogmatism is as blind as that of the worst 'cxommunist' planned-economy statists). Only the state railways of France, Belgium, and in a different way (not government but unions & bosses) Austria and Italy seem to put up serious resistance to the idea, while Spain's Zapatero wants to limit it. But the marketista nonsense progressed far in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and it also became EU policy (open-access, separation of tracks and traffic, cutting back national railway privileges, regions rather than states 'ordering' rather than providing public transport).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 02:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By the way, for the record, I should mention that the marketistas can point to one success of their rail policies in Britain: sharply rising passenger numbers. (As I pointed out in another diary, passenger numbers are actually higher than in France, even without the Tube, which unlike its Paris counterpart also functions as suburban rail.)



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 02:58:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That doesn't as a success because there's no control group. UK Rail has had billions thrown at it since privatisation. The old management of BR could have completely transformed the entire network with that kind of money - new trains, high speed links and all.

In fact I'd argue that the rise in passenger numbers is disappointing given the money that's being spent. It has been driven partly by local efforts, like the London Congestion Charge.

And taken in context, it's a 30-40% rise paid for with a 500% subsidy increase.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 07:29:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, those are among the reasons I think rail privatisation was a complete disaster.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 09:52:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, there's no evidence that this is thanks to the marketistas. A better economy means more travel and with Britain able to exploit the North Sea oil fields, its economy was booming indeed. This is all gone now.

Are you forgetting the RER?

--

Regarding upgrading, upgrades always come in for unexpected costs and new lines much less so. Though tunnels are another matter. Signaling is the one thing I'd expect to not get cost overruns, assuming it's been tested so I don't quite understand that.

Switzerland is of course a special case for many reasons. Including that as a transit country, they must prioritize freight.

The disinvestment in SNCF and the appeal of seperating infrastructure from operation is easy to understand given SNCF's SNAFU mode of operation. Especially if the intent is to stop SNCF from hiding its operating losses in infrastructure payments.

Even open competition is easy to understand if it results in separate passenger and freight businesses with more investment into modern freight terminals.

Do we know what Sweden's infrastructure investment rate has been per capita? France's hasn't been too good since the 90s. And Netherlands is just finishing that hugely expensive line.

Also, despite open access being EU policy, I heard an EU directive on it hadn't progressed past first reading because it would violate constitutional protections in France on free administration of communes. I can't quite recall what made it into French law due to the EU.

by richardk (richard kulisz gmail) on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 07:51:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
better economy means more travel

No, it's better to look for the marketista-disproving explanation in what ThatBritGuy said. The rise in passenger numbers was generated by private railways that lowered fares and raised capacity (including a rather significant wave of new vehicle purchases) while spending nothing on the infrastructure, e.g. all the difficult stuff was externalised from their viewpoint, and this (alongside infrastructure policies that aggravated it) led directly to the Railtrack financial disaster.

Are you forgetting the RER?

No, it is accounted for in SNCF's statistics.

Signaling is the one thing I'd expect to not get cost overruns, assuming it's been tested

That's the point: it wasn't tested. They thought wireless moving-block signalling (which will become ERTMS Level 3) can be implemented easily. But even today, it is still far away. What's more, the wireless fixed-block ERTMS Level 2 system, despite tests, caused cost overruns in multiple countries due to failure to achieve reasonably trouble-free operation (two Swiss lines, the Madrid-Barcelona high-speed line, Italian high-speed lines).

Switzerland may be a freight transit country, but it is also the country with the highest per capita train travel, so your point actually points in the opposite direction: the Swiss railway infrastructure achieved great reliability for dense passenger traffic despite a heavy freight traffic load.

Separation of infrastructure and operations is 'easy to understand' for simpleton marketista politicians, but the basic fact is, railways are not easy to understand, they are among the most complex systems operated in the economy. Railways aren't like roads, each of the planning, maintenance, and network coordination of fixed infrastucture and rolling stock is closely interwinded. I refer you back to the British example. Also, new freight terminals has nothing to do with separating passenger and freight business.

Per capita rail infrastructure investment figures touted around are difficult to interpret: on one hand, they depend on what works are counted as investment and what 'only' as maintenance, on the other hand, they often reflect a few megaprojects. Plus, it's one thing to build new lines and another to make up for decades of lack of proper maintenance. But, off-hand I give a figure of currently just above €100 per capita for Sweden, after a strong upward tendency (Botniabanan, Malmö and now Stockholm city tunnels boosted it), somewhat higher for Britain and Italy, and significantly lower for France and Germany after downward trends. (Though note, I'm not sure about the level of non-RFF rail infrastructure investments, expecially by regions.)

Regarding EU open access policy, part of it is already in force, there were the initial laws on institutional separation (executed in France by the creation of RFF in 1997), then the first (2001) and second (2004) railway packages that liberalised international traffic. The third package, with the thorny question of open-access in passenger service and domestic services, is now in second reading, and back when the Council formed its common position, France & allies only blocked the domestic liberalisation part (though that's the most important). Just a few days ago, while most of the Third Package (including international passenger service liberalisation from 2010) passed the EP vote, the joint Commission-relevant EP Committee proposal on internal liberalisation failed (narrowly, due to absent MEPs...) to get qualified majority.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 12:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it is accounted for in SNCF's statistics.

Huh, I was referring to your comment about Paris not having an equivalent suburban rail.

That's the point: it wasn't tested. They thought wireless moving-block signalling (which will become ERTMS Level 3) can be implemented easily.

I expected it hadn't been tested though I still can't quite believe the sheer arrogance of trying to implement ERTMS level 3. Several years later, Spain attempt to implement ERTMS level 2 has led to a 200 km/h limit on the line.

the Swiss railway infrastructure achieved great reliability for dense passenger traffic despite a heavy freight traffic load.

Yes, I know. Though it wasn't my intent to argue this either way. Merely that right now, the Swiss must focus their priorities on freight instead of HST if they don't want to get inundated by 40 tonne trucks. And I didn't want to argue the past because there are too many confusing factors. As you know, Switzerland's geography doesn't make an expansive highway system feasible.

Separation of infrastructure and operations is 'easy to understand' for simpleton marketista politicians,

Well, I'm not a simpleton or a marketista, though I can't figure out which would be more insulting. And I'm also used to figuring out highly complex non-linear systems. If I've missed some of the connections between operations and infrastructure, perhaps you can point them out to me. So far, I see the big problem as scheduling. It's why I don't believe in 'open access'.

Also, new freight terminals has nothing to do with separating passenger and freight business.

Doesn't it? Infrastructure funding in France is a political decision. Splitting up the businesses would expose them both to the politicians. There would no longer be just "railways" but "passenger rail" and "rail freight".

Additionally, if the rail freight business were autonomous, it might have more scope for innovation. With less power but more freedom, it might decide to restart the express freight business which La Poste abandoned.

Thank you for the summary about the current situation.

by richardk (richard kulisz gmail) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 01:14:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh, I was referring to your comment about Paris not having an equivalent suburban rail.

Ahh, nevermind that. I understand what you mean.

by richardk (richard kulisz gmail) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 01:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But actually, the RER is partly RATP (including the main bits of the busiest lines, A & B) and partly SNCF, so I'm not sure if it's properly accounted for in the SNCF figures.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 04:00:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You have a point. But I'm not sure how many of the 450 million or so yearly passengers RATP has on its sections was also counted by SNCF on its part of lines A and B.

At any rate, the Paris urban rail system (Métro+RER+trams+commuters) is superior to London's at present, what's more, London looked at Paris for inspiration. The Crossrail proposal, which got a boost after London got the Olympics though won't be ready for it, and the less ambitious (but ready by the Olympics) East London Line project are modelled on the RER.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Jan 27th, 2007 at 06:38:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the Swiss must focus their priorities on freight instead of HST

Well, building HST would be a way to make way for freight. At any rate, the Swiss do such planning in the integrated way. E.g., say the proposals for enhancements in the Basel area include a bypass route for freight to have more capacity for new TGV-Est, DB Rhine valley route related high-speed traffic, plus extensions for the local rapid trains.

Switzerland's geography doesn't make an expansive highway system feasible.

Still a referendum was needed to stop their expansion, and voting down both proposals in another referendum to prevent the lifting of that prohibition.

So far, I see the big problem as scheduling.

(1) Infrastructure Branch builds a new line with 1.5 kV DC and both ERTMS Lev 2 and old signalling system, Operator Branch runs some local and some international trains with dirrerent locos; (2) Infrastructure Branch builds a new line with ERTMS Lev 2 and 50 Hz / 25 kV, Operator purchases two-system locos with both signalling systems for all trains. In this case, which version is cheaper (a) for Infrastructure Branch, (b) for Operator, (c) for the entire railway?

Similar examples could be made about each of the issues I (and you) brought up downthread in connection with the question of international compatibility, e.g. infrastructure investment planning influences vehicle and operation planning and vice versa, also in cost.

A lower maintenance threshold for rail vehicles will result in higher track wear, and vice versa. This is (unfortunately) visible most strongly in my region, but also appears more to the West. Compare French and German high-speed tracks and operation, in particular rail polishing train operation and night freight trains. Or, again, pre-Hatfield British policy.

There would no longer be just "railways" but "passenger rail" and "rail freight".

This can bear strange fruits like the abandonment of the idea of universal locomotive just when it was made possible by technology (and reality in Austria [and France and Switzerland until recently]), or the separation of maintenance shops which results in longer routes to repair; e.g. cost increases where capacities are doubled and operational problems where they can't.

With less power but more freedom, it might decide to restart the express freight business which La Poste abandoned

The problem is that at present, railfreight is the most losing branch for railways. That is, on its own, it is least able to bring up capital, while integrated, it is at least possible (even if in reality rarely prioritized) to branch off money from profitable high-speed (or subsidized local passenger...) services. On your example, I tink a cross-railway offer involving utilisation of the high-speed lines with new or rebuilt-from-express-passenger-cars and series 36000 locos would

Regarding the issue of what is needed infrastructure-wise to separate passenger and freight, or at least to give freight a stronger background, I can think of two things.

The first is a strategy to separate freight and express passenger lines along the same corridors, be it by adding extra tracks, building high-speed lines and/or freight bypasses, or using close-by parallel lines intelligently; paired with fitting the lines intended for freight with tracks for high axleloads. This part is actual EU policy.

The other part is not EU policy, and pursued by only a few governments (and even them lacklustre): to maintain a network with a high number of access points, to subsidize local wagon or sub-wagon-load freight and industry access tracks. To count on customers opting for re-loading from local trucks proved a folly too often.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Jan 27th, 2007 at 07:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As case study of how things can be bungled up elsewhere, I write down some criticisms of France's TGV.

The number one criticism should be not one of the TGV itself, but government priorities. I blamed the Chirac government, but the bulk of the prior decade wasn't ideal either. The first leg of the TGV Est will be opened on 10 June -- but that's a decade late compared to riginal planning, and the second leg across the Vosges toward Strasbourg receded into misty future. The line towards Bordeaux and Toulouse is to be built only in stages and only after 2010, the total delay will be more like two decades. A line South towards the Massif Central, either as true high-sapeed or an upgrade for tilt trains, is now even off the table -- while the beautiful but high-way-carrying Millau bridge completed an expensive highway. A lot of highwqays have been built in central France, including in the Loire valley, where a cross line (to reduce the centralised nature of the network) wasn't even proposed.

The number two criticism is tunnels. TGV lines were built on the cheap by sparing tunnels almost completely. Only the TGV Atlantique connection into Paris and the TGV Mediterranée entry into Marseille have significant tunnels. This policy has two negative consequences.

On one hand, projects that really drag are those where tunnels are unavoidable, and they drag more than in other countries. Witness the ever-stretching Lyons-Turin project. Witness the TGV Rhin-Rhône: on the easiest, firsat to be built Northeast branch (towards Mulhouse) of its three branches, a single laughable less than two km long tunnel was treated as significant challenge, while the Northwest branch (across Dijon towards Paris) will not be built in 15 years due to the need of a relatively short cross-city tunnel under Dijon.

The other negative consequence is indicated by the above example of Dijon: to cut costs, TGV line planners had the idea to bypass cities and build stations out in the green, rather than build cross-city tunnels (as now built in Florence and Bologna on the Italian network, or in Barcelona in Spain) or parallel bypass and city access lines (as say at Zaragoza and Lerida in Spain). So there goes the no-travel-to-the-airport-time advantage of high-speed rail, high-speed rail is connected to car culture, and that not with that much success (these out in the nothing stations are often lightly frequented).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 02:53:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why the delays and the avoidance of tunnels?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 03:39:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The delays: other priorities, picking rail projects first when plucking budget holes. The tunnels: as I implied, originally cost-cutting, now lack of experience with modern rail tunnel projects (they should hire Spanish or Swiss project managers).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 06:07:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought the green stations were only built for political reasons. When the TGV planners got tired of small cities bickering for the station and decided to screw them all. That's what happened with Haute-Picardie and with the plans for the LGV Bretagne.
by richardk (richard kulisz gmail) on Tue Jan 23rd, 2007 at 08:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another example of foot-dragging by Chirac's governments is the once-firmly-planned high-speed link between Bordeaux and the Mediterranean (Narbonne) via Toulouse, that has been left dangling in spite of repeated demands from the Midi-Pyrénées region.

The present government backs a plan for a second international airport for Toulouse on the grounds that the first will not be able to handle air traffic in the future. Toulouse is on the "TGV" map richardk provided, in the blue 5-6 hour zone. That is, the train you get on in Toulouse is a true TGV, but runs as a regular express train for more than half the trip to Paris via Bordeaux. That takes 5h 20mn. So the Toulouse-Paris (700 km/440 miles) air shuttle is hugely used. Circular argument by which the authorities justify the need for a new airport...

A full TGV link would put Toulouse at 3h 30mn from Paris and would probably cut air shuttle traffic by half.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 02:13:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Little correction: a full and direct TGV link (via Angoulême) could put it even at 2h30m, if high-speed connection is via Bordeaux (as currently planned for 2019...) then 3h, but opening of new sections between Tours and Bordeaux would already suffice for 3h30m.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 09:44:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you give me a reference for that? It's the first time I've heard it, the 3h 30 figure is always given...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 12:36:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
RFF itself gives "a bit more than 3h" after Bordeaux-Toulouse is built. I don't remember where I read 2h30m for a direct route to Toulouse, but the figure can be supported by simple calculation. (The distance would be somewhat less than to Marseille, and line speeds higher throughout. A 280 km/h travel speed is quite possible, even is we remain conservative and expect only 320 km/h top speed with accelerations as today: TGVs achieve 260 km/h average on a much shorter distance between two stations of the TGV Mediterranée.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 01:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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