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Why the rise of the Left Party has cast the Social Democrats into a gloom

Why is a small party founded by east German former communists causing national ructions? One reason is that the economic upswing has left so many Germans behind. Unemployment is at its lowest level since the early 1990s, thanks partly to the reforms that Mr Beck now wants to roll back. But many of the new jobs offer lower pay and less security than those lost during the downturn, notes Markus Grabka of DIW, a research institute in Berlin. Relative poverty has jumped, with 17% of Germans earning less than 60% of the median in 2005, up from 12% in 1999. Income-tax cuts have helped the rich; the middle class has shrunk.

On these matters the Left Party is saying what most Germans seem to be thinking. According to one recent poll, 82% of Germans want to lower the retirement age from 67 (reversing another reform), two-thirds want a minimum wage and 72% think the grand coalition should do more to promote social justice. Half want German troops out of Afghanistan, but the Left Party is the only one that unqualifiedly agrees. Unlike the Greens and the Free Democrats, it has no reason to flirt with either party in the grand coalition (the SPD refuses to consider it as a potential partner at federal level). It likes to claim it is Germany's only real opposition party.

But reform is good.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 09:26:02 AM EST
a small party founded by east German former communists

That's only valid for one of its two origins...

many of the new jobs offer lower pay and less security

...while that of old jobs is constrained and benefits are reduced. And The Economist consistently uses nondefinite qualifiers, where it could have used recently much talked-about statistics about average real wage.

notes Markus Grabka of DIW

I found this quote by The Economist noteworthy. Though no radicals in any way, as far as I know DIW is a centre-left-leaning (ex-Keynesian) research institute (maybe François a Paris would call them a think-tank), and was recently excluded from the circle of institutes the government asks about projections of economic growth.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 09:40:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a good chunk of the article that describes (reasonably fairly, I thought, but maybe I'm just misinformed) the origins of the Linkspartei from the merger of the old PDS and the Lafontaine group.

Even with the qualifiers, the Economist hardly paints a positive economic situation, and clearly flags what happens when you reform - lower wages, inequality and rising poverty. I found that newsworthy (I originally intended to do a FP post with that paragraph, but as you posted this story, I added it here).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 10:31:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, towards the second half, there is a reasonably good description, but they still go into it through more spin on ex-communists:

The Left Party is the third incarnation of East Germany's Socialist Unity Party...

It was a bust-up within the SPD that gave the Left Party its purchase in the west.

It is indeed newsworthy that The Economist gives out so much about a negative post-reform picture. But they will never go too far, and I just noted that. More in the theme: first, I suspect the picture itself comes from DIW rather than the journalist looking up data on his won. Second, towards the end:

the Left Party ... could be hurt by a more populist SPD, by greater prosperity (incomes have picked up during the revival of the past two years)

Maybe brutto and running prices. But netto real wages decreased, and netto real available income per inhabitant (AFAIK the best measure of how much people can spend) is stagnant.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 12:10:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's funny: everytime the SPD rules, a new party emerges on the left and grabs its voters.

/not historically accurate

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 12:14:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the past two weeks, most pollsters see the Left Party at 11% (SPD-close Forsa sees them at 13%), leading the trio of smaller parties since the summer. SPD is below 30% (strangely lowest just in Forsa's poll: 24%).

When summing the parties in parliament on the left and right (imaginary as long as no one wants to coalition with the Left Party), the saituation is about dead-even.

All polls at Wahlrecht.de

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 09:51:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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