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As for what happen after uncollectivisation, see Chile or even the US.
High growth and low absolute poverty. You do make a compelling argument against collective state-run pensions, I must say.
An insurance company can't make a contract for an individual that runs the risk of making a loss.
In fact, this is exactly what insurance companies do every single day. It is in fact what the business of insurance is all about.
Pensions are only viable over a large pool of subscribers.
Which is what insurance is about. But of course, it can be argued that pensions aren't insurance at all, and most of the time it's handles by banks. ;-)
It is not easily controllable. See the recent failure of AAA-rated CDOs . And systemic crashes can wipe out any and all assets.
Including much of the states assets, so that's not an argument. Having your money in the bank is not more risky than giving them to the state, and the reason for that is that states have bank guarantees, which are a necessity to have a well functioning financial system.
The claim that it is risky is complete and utter bogus.
Much better than the markets where a dozen large market players control your retirement assets' valuation.
A dozen vs one. Yeah. MUCH better.
Said market players, and others, are very good at swindling the majority of people out of their retirement, have they have done in the recent and more ancient past.
And so have states. In fact, you are argung that Sarkozy is trying to do just that right now.
QED.
As for what happen after uncollectivisation, see Chile or even the US.High growth and low absolute poverty. You do make a compelling argument against collective state-run pensions, I must say.
Well US and Chile don't have particularly low poverty levels in fact the majority of European countries are at least a percent below the US poverty rate. I seem to remember discussing on here the manipulation of US poverty definitions to remove 4% from US poverty figures. So the idea that the US has low poverty levels dosn't really stand up. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Percentage_population_living_on_less_than_1_dollar_day.png
The US poverty rate you refer to is defined as a percentage of the median income, and is therefore in fact not a measurement of poverty at all, but a measurement of income distribution, just as all so called "relative poverty" measurements are.
The US has low poverty levels. Anything else is pure misinformation.
Also note how Chile is doing well, and better than it's neighbours. Also, Chile has a very good life expectancy, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Life_expectancy_world_map.PNG
And a good HDI value: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:HDImap_spectrum2006.png
All things that largely has happened thanks to a relatively liberal economic policies. (Yes, relatively, that is about as liberal as Sweden. The idea that Chile is some sort of superneoliberal experiment is a pure myth).
it may well be that the relative poverty measures aren't truly effective in showing poverty, but theres got to be some measure better than a dollar a day. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
Another good measure of serious (but not extreme) poverty is HDI, and as noted bot US and Chile is doing very nicely there.
I suspect that you simply will have to just grin and bear it: The myth that liberal politics causes poverty is just that: A myth. Neither the US nor Chile has any huge problem with poverty compared to the rest of the world.
The main cause of poverty is when the mechanism that create wealth break down. That mechanism is trade, and it breaks down mainly because of war or other violent conflicts, corrupt governments and planned economy (in roughly that order of importance).
It's PPP dollars, hence that difference is taken care of.
PPP is a normalization to purchasing power, and an imperfect one at that. What is relevant in terms of poverty is subsistence costs and PPP is largely meaningless in that respect.
From Wikipedia:
The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory was developed by Gustav Cassel in 1920. It is the method of using the long-run equilibrium exchange rate of two currencies to equalize the currencies' purchasing power. It is based on the law of one price, the idea that, in an efficient market, identical goods must have only one price.
See, there are two problems with using PPP to normalize for subsistence costs. First, for most of the goods involved in subsistence, there is no global market, hence the assumption of equal prices is simply (and patently) false. Subsistence depends mainly on shelter, food and water. Of those three, only food is globally tradeable on any kind of industrial scale, and even then, if you believe that the global food market behaves according to the normal rules of market economics, I've got some Enron shares I think you should have a look at.
Second, there does exist a global market for such things as cars, flat-screen TVs and computers, although even there, the assumption of a single price is somewhat suspect). Which means that PPP is going to normalize to the cost of flat-screens rather than food.
To put it in simple terms, 1000 US$PPP may buy me the same amount of cell phones or computers anywhere in the world (give or take ten percent), but it will manifestly not buy me the same amount of calories or vitamin A anywhere in the world.
I'm a charitable kind of guy, so I'll chalk this error up to simple ignorance rather than outright mendacity. Others might be less kind, especially as you yourself so flippantly accuse many of us of lying.
Oh, and next time, do your homework yourself.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
PPP Exchange rate is the theoretical exchange rate you should have if each currency would give you the same amount of money.
I think JakeSs main misunderstanding comes here:
First, for most of the goods involved in subsistence, there is no global market, hence the assumption of equal prices is simply (and patently) false.
Sure. But that doesn't matter, since the point here is not saying what the exchange rates between two currencies should be, but the point is to convert the daily income into something that is comparable. And for that, PPP works just fine.
This is of course not perfect, but it's way better than just using currency exchange rates when measuring poverty.
I'll even admit that I flew off the handle a bit from being accused of dishonesty. That tends to piss me off. Nevertheless, I do not think that it would be wise of you to attempt to turn this into a discussion of who has been most polite in this thread. DoDo and linca would win that contest hands down.
Nevertheless, it is still true that PPP$ do not accurately reflect subsistence costs, which is the thrust of my original point, as the PPP normalisation includes many goods and services that are not necessary to subsistence.
It is, of course, possible to construct an appropriate normalisation, but that's not what's being done with the official numbers.
Thus, being able to afford a train ride in a poor country based on subsistence farming is not a major problem (at least compared to all the other problems subsistence farmers face), while in a society where the economic structure is based on thirty-km commutes each way, each day, inability to afford a train ticket is A Bad Thing. Precisely the same good. Wildly differing degrees of necessity.
I accuse you who perpetuate this argument of having been suckered. :-)
People are NOT rich because they starve to death together.
Sure, but it's the best option we have until somebody actually make a PPP index that is done only to measure poverty. And to be quite honest, regarding how cheap subsistence goods like somewhere to live and food is in the US, I seriously doubt that the US is gonna come out any worse in the comparison...
Huh!? HDI is an average that tells little about wealth distribution, and thus the level of poverty, especially that of pensioners. HDI is composed of life expectancy (an average itself), literacy and school enrollment (says absolutely nothing about pensioners' income), and GDP per capita (which again is an average itself). HDI is not at all useful here. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
little about wealth distribution, and thus the level of poverty
As mentioned before, those are NOT the same thing. Income distribution in North Korea is probably very good, people are equally poor. But they still starve to death when the crops fail.
Wealth distribution does NOT measure poverty.
Besides, HDI includes wealth distribution.
But yes, it sais very little about pensioners incomes.
No one said they are the same thing. One needs both the average and the distribution to calculate the level of poverty (be it absolute or relative), and you ignored one of these.
Nope. The sole figure in HDI related to wealth (but not equivalent with wealth, ask the Irish) is per capita GDP, which is an average. Check the formula. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The idea of saying any other measure of poverty than 1 dollar a day isn't poverty is frankly laughable.
Good thing I didn't say anything resembilng that, btw. I included three measures of poverty. I just pointed out that a measurement that measure income distribution doe not measure poverty, just because you call it "poverty". I can measure the average temperature of a country and call that a "poverty scale" if I like. It doesn't make it true.
"Poverty" measures as percentage of a countries mean income is not a measure of poverty at all. Calling it that, which many people do, is simply a lie.
Good thing I didn't say anything resembilng that, btw. I included three measures of poverty.
Yes and you managed to exclude the one measure of poverty out of 4 on the page that agrees with me. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
In other words, if you live in France, you have a lower risk of being poor by US standards than if you live in the US. France having a lower median income (if the stats in the article are correct), the numbers become even more atrocious when you compare them the other way around.
And now you are running out of arguments. I'm not gonna discuss with people who can't keep the discussion civil.
This is the fraction of children in OECD countries below the US poverty level. Most European countries (among the exceptions: UK) have lower ABSOLUTE poverty than the US, despite much lower average revenues.
Now if your standard is 'there are fewer poor than in India', feel free. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
The argument presented here was that if you did NOT have state run collective pension agreements then misery and disaster and loads of starving old people would ensue. The argument was also that we should look to the US to see the horrible effects of this.
And the proof for the immense amount of starving people is evidently that there is 2.3 units more children who's family is below the US poverty line in US than in France.
I fail to see how the supposed horrors have materialized, or for that matter what that graph has to do with pensions. And I also look forward to explanations of where all the starving people are in Iceland. I sure didn't see them where I lived there and whaddayouknow, they have a system with private obligatory pension funds. And the worlds next highest HDI (after Norway, who as a state pension system).
Maybe privatizing the pension system isn't such a horrible disaster after all?
What's this about Iceland? Iceland does have a state-run pension system alongside mandatory occupational ones (the dominant form) and free individual ones, and as it happens, the system was a result of negotiations with trade unions: they got this system in exchange for accepting a delay in wage increases almost four decades ago, and trade union heads sit on the boards of the mandatory occupational funds.
Since this started with SNCF's special pensions regime, I am all ears why you think occupational segmentation of pension funds is bad in France but good in Iceland. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
...while per capita GDP is significantly higher. Thus would per capita GDPs match, I'd expect twice as many poor... and that's not considering differences of measurement and unaccounted-for factors (like stuff the French poor get for free but the US poor have to pay for, say, healthcare). *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Thus would per capita GDPs match, I'd expect twice as many poor...
No, because then the level of poverty would have been different, see. ;) That's the problem with that kind of measurement.
and that's not considering differences of measurement and unaccounted-for factors (like stuff the French poor get for free but the US poor have to pay for, say, healthcare).
Right. Which is why I before use HDI is variable, because it does take those factors into account. And United States are in place 8 and France in Place 16.
Both high enough to be practically the same in a global perspective. Which is my point. Poverty isn't caused by having a choice in pension schemes, or having private pensions. No matter of wriggling and juggling with facts is going to change that.
Nope, the level of poverty in Jérôme's graph is absolute (current US poverty line, read the caption). If you increase French per capita GDP to the US level, more Frenchmen will move across the US poverty level.
I before use HDI is variable, because it does take those factors into account
No, it doesn't take them into account. Check the formula. And again, HDI is not a measure of poverty rates.
To repeat the point you avoided, not only is the ratio of poor people much higher in the USA even if we use an absolute income threshold, but the French-US difference is even stronger if we add the virtual value of for-free public services available to the poor. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
And your point is what?
My point is simply to answer to your claims up in the thread that the US has low poverty levels.
And yet, even using the most favorable measure for the US (using the absolute US threshhold for poverty for all countries, rather than each countrie's level), the US has significantly higher poverty rates than the main continental and Scandinavian European countries.
So your claim is, simply false. And that's not even taking into account discussions on status, positional goods, and social mobility which make the use of relative poverty rates a lot more relevant in reality.
Oh, for a country that has very little poverty, that paragraph from an other diary makes one wonder what "poverty" means for you (all sources, and more on poverty, at that link):
Infantile mortality rates are now rising in the US, a surprising phenomenon in peacetime. Even more impressively, the life expectancy at birth of its poorest citizens is 15 years shorter than that of its more privileged ones.
<blockquotes>So your claim is, simply false.</blockquotes>
Evidently not. Look, I understand it's painful to get your myths crushed, but the fact is that there is no starving masses in the United States, despite what some people like to tell you. Arbitrary measurements does not change this fact even if you call it a poverty measurement.
The case that was presented here was twofold:
There is absolute poverty in the US and other industrialized countries. And the number of people living in poverty varies according to the state policies.
Try to use facts rather than groundless affirmations. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
Although I suspect most of these differences are based on how you measure, again this supposed huge poverty in the US vanished in a big puff of smoke when you actually look at it.
Besides, most people that are truly homeless, ie really have no permanent place to keep their stuff for a significant period of their lifes in the US are homeless for the same reasons as the homeless in France or anywhere else in the western world, and that drug abuse, alcoholism och mental disorders. That is not a poverty issue.
It's hard to measure. I have been officially homeless. Once for 14 months I didn't have an official address. I still had somewhere to sleep (although this admittedly was just a bunkbed in the dormitory at the military). That's not real homelessness, but it counts in the statistics. I've also had a shorter period of a month or so where I moved around amongst friends. I just couldn't get a permanent place to Stay in Stockholm, because the housing market there is highly regulated which in practice means that the only way you kind find a place is to rent illegaly in second hand for ridicolous prices. That's homelessness in a more real sense (although it probably didn't count in the statistics since I put my permanent address at my parents by that time), but not a poverty issue in any real sense.
3.5 million people experiencing "homelessness" is 1.5 %, not thousandth.
There are working people, who have a daily job, and are homeless. People who aren't alcoholic or mad. A third of the homeless in France ; a similar share in the US.
And it's not about "not having permanent address". It's about having no place to sleep in, and having to ask to an emergency shelter. The fact that you compare your past situation to homelessness shows you have only a very tenuous grasp with what poverty actually means in the industrialised world. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
And it's not about "not having permanent address". It's about having no place to sleep in, and having to ask to an emergency shelter.
No it's not. It is about not having a permanent adress. That's the definition used, and then number of around 800.000 is what other sources also use. And that is NOT about going to shelters, but not having apermanent address.
The fact that you compare your past situation to homelessness shows you have only a very tenuous grasp with what poverty actually means in the industrialised world.
Realitycheck: It is homelessness in the definitions used to gather the statistics above. I explained this in my post. What was unclear?
Try to use facts rather than groundless affirmations.
Try to not throw stones in glass houses. You just claimed that 1.5% of the population of the US lives in shelters or on the streets. That's ridicolous. It's time to come back to reality.
"Experiencing homelessness" may not be the same as "being homeless", but it is a sure sign of strong poverty, of unreliability of housing access. It is an indicator of absolute poverty.
And 1.5% of Americans experiencing homelessness every year is reality, as frightening as the 2% that sleep in jail every night (another indicator of poverty) Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
At this point all I can do is to repeat what I already have said until it hits home, but my experience is that it's a very frustration experience to do so, and it takes a long time, and most of the time fails, so I'm not gonna waste my time doing that. You'll just have to continue to live with your pre-concieved idea of how the world looks.
1. That freedom of choice was an argument for keeping the current situation in French pensions.
2. That if you allow people freedom of choice in pensions, poverty and starving old people will ensue.
There has been exactly zero evidence to support this. Instead you are digging down the debate into a quagmire by repeatedly asserting statements that have no contact with reality, and using irrelevant statistics in an effort to polish a complete turd of argumentation.
Then claiming that I don't come with evidence is rather absurd.
It is not debate, it's me trying to explain, and you putting your fingers in your ears and loudly repeating random numbers to yourselves to prop up your myths and avoid challenging your basic assumptions. Or foundational myths, as rg calls them. That was a good post, read it:
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2007/10/21/65910/511
I think the foundational myths here are:
Hence, US is evil. Hence, US policy is evil. Hence, the US must be a much worse place to live than most other places.
The rest of the sick and screwed up arguments here, together with the general fear of freedom, can probably be extracted from these basic assumptions.
OK, first: "Truly" homeless? Are you really arguing that a person is not "truly" homeless if he or she only lacks a home for, say, two months? Two weeks? Two years? What kind of "significant period" meets this mysterious defintion of "truly"? Just out of curiosity.
But defining only the chronically homeless are "truly" homeless is a handy way to pretend that poverty and homelessness aren't real societal problems that need to be addressed.
Second, your definition of "most" needs some work. According to the National Health Care for the Homeless Council:
Approximately one-third have mental illnesses. Perhaps one-half have a current or past drug or alcohol addiction.
That is not my definition of "most." It is, of course, more convenient to believe that the only thing that could possibly lead to "true" homelessness and "true" poverty in our enlightened societies is mental illness, but that's just fantasy.
There are many factors that lead to homelessness, including domestic violence and illness - and for the record, I'm talking about illness of the physical kind, since it seems that some people believe that those who suffer from illness of the mental kind are for some reason less deserving of sympathy or support. Which is not a belief I share, but let's move on.
Next, mental illness and drug addiction are issues of poverty, in that the poor and homeless have far fewer resources for dealing with those problems than the rich and homed. Diseases of the physical and mental kind affect the poor and homeless in roughly the same proportions as the general population. But the poor have fewer (or zero) treatment options, and are likely to encounter much greater difficulty getting help. As a consequence, they may not recover from illnesses (mental and otherwise) that a person with more resources might recover from easily.
What's the result of all this? Let's just talk about my hometown, the so-called "Capital of the Free World." In Washington, D.C., according to the Washington Legal Aid Center for the Homeless, nearly half of all homeless people are women and children. One of the largest homeless shelters in D.C. is run by the CCNV:
Over 65% of the shelter guests work full- or part -time on a regular basis.
That's right, they're working full- or part-time, and are still homeless. They're living in a homeless shelter, not a military barracks. This is genuine poverty and true homelessness. It's real, and denying that won't make it so.
I'm scratching my head at how someone could conclude that poverty and homelessness don't really exist in our societies just because he or she hasn't experienced it first-hand.
Well, that would be puzzling. Now who are you referring to exactly?
This debate is now edging into to the world of underhand accusations and straw men. I'm not gonna go there. I will not defend positions I have never had and I will not stand for being accused of opinions that have nothing to do with what I said.
Thank you for debating seriously.
That is not my definition of "most".
First of all those numbers relate to not having a permanent home, not the people living on the streets or in shelters. Second of all one third + one half = five sixths, and 5/6th is indeed "most".
Now who are you referring to exactly?
You were the one who brought up your experience, as if it had some relevance to your argument.
Second of all one third + one half = five sixths, and 5/6th is indeed "most".
Only an idiot or an ideologue would argue that the one-third and the one-half could not possibly overlap and must therefore total five-sixths. Have you heard of a Venn diagram? Or are you just being intellectually dishonest?
I will accept no barbs from you about debating seriously, thank you. Study some basic math, then come back and chat.
The third and the half does not exactly overlap, which is rather obvious. Thus it must in total be more than one half, and hence, it is "most".
You are not debating seriously, you are rude, and asking me to study mathematics is seriously stupid.
I'm sorry that what I'm going to say now is gonna sound as rude as what you said. But the difference is that it's true.
I was invited here by a friend to discuss politics. Unfortunately, this place is full of people with preconceived idea who gets angry when reality comes knocking on the door. It's rather pointless to continue debating with those people since it prevents all serious debate, since the only thing that is accepted is sucking up and agreeing to your fantasies of how you want the world to behave, even when that is not how things are.
You want the poverty in the US to be horrid. No, you need it. The US must be a horrible place for poor, because the US politics must be evil, because the US is the most powerful country in the world, so if they aren't evil, everything would be fine, right?
Sorry, you have no idea of how things work, you don't understand a pluralistic society and as a consequence you are afraid of freedom, and instead grab comfort in collectivistic myths.
I wish I understood how to make people like you understand. But I guess I never will.
Just so you know, you are responding to an American person, and probably close to half of the regular readers of this site are Americans.
Unpatriotic ones, presumably. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Unpatroticism is good.
Let's just talk about my hometown
She is taking about stuff she saw with her own eyes, it's you who clings to myths six thousand miles away. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
You have cited three measures of poverty, two of which are population averages (HDI and life expectancy) and the third of which is clearly and evidently nonsense (a dollar a day is meaningless as a definition of poverty - even if you lived well above this threshold, such as for two dollars a day, you would still be in abject poverty).
So far in this thread, the only remotely meaningful definition of poverty presented is as a fraction of the median income.
As it happens, I agree with you that this is a somewhat ad hoc measure, but over small timescales (a couple of decades) in developed societies it works well enough as a proxy for what we want to measure.
Personally, I would propose a definition of poverty that goes as follows:
A person is in poverty if (s)he does not have reliable access to all of the following:
Clearly, under this definition, the US has higher poverty rates than virtually any Western European country. Equally clearly, under this definition privatized pension schemes do lead directly to poverty.
I acknowledge, of course, that this scheme is not perfect. However, I challenge anyone who disagrees with it to propose a better one him- or herself, or refer me to a better one already proposed.
Of the four definitions of poverty discussed here, this is the completely meaningless one. That is not poverty at all, as it says absolutely NOTHING about how you actually live, and how your life is, while the others, HDI in particular, does say a lot about it.
And yes, they are national averages. They ALL are. Because what we are discussing is the poverty of countries. Duh.
I realized yesterday, that when I grew up we were amongst the poorest ones around. We had some neighbours which I know didn't have much money, and we kinda saw them as poor, and probably they were poorer than us. But this makes us pretty much the second poorest family around in the town where I lived. My mum when to first high-school and then university while working at the same time. This was the 60s and there wan't much social services around. But where we poor? No, we had food and housing and health care and went to school. But yet, according to your definitions, I lived in abject dreadful poverty and should be compared to starving kids in India, because I was amongst the poorest in my country, just as they are amongst the poorest in their country.
That attitude with it's dreadful antihumanism and complete ignorance of the realities of people who are living in despair is completely incomprehensible to me.
Maybe you can lift this incomprehention. Explain to my why, to you, it is better if everybody starves than if everybody lives reasonably good lives but some people live even better lives. Because that IS the conclusion of what you are saying, when you say that the only poverty that exists is relative poverty.
btw, I knew quickly that this forum was full of leftist people, but this is the first forum I've even come across where some discount HDI. Usually, when you talk about poverty leftists will lift HDI up as a good measurement. I'm astonished.
Because, why should we limit ourself to countries? Heck, I could claim that there is a large problem with poverty in the filmstar villas of Beverly Hills, by having a relative definition of poverty and then just looking at Beverly Hill, and ignoring the poor areas of Los Angeles.
And hey, if I'm not allowed to draw a line around Beverly Hills, why should I draw the line around the US? Shouldn't I include Mexico at least? Well, why, yes, I should.
This just once again shows how ridiculous relative poverty is as a concept.
Second of all: I didn't grow up in France. There were no slums in the country I grew up in. I really, honestly, were amongst the poorest of the country.
Regarding the stormy presents assumption that I think poverty doesn't exist because I haven't experienced it, I'm seriously starting to believe that the reason you people believe the myths about relative poverty is because you haven't experienced it. Well. I have.
Yes. Now, first of all, that actually doesn't matter for the sake of argument. Because Jake claims all poverty is RELATIVE. And the means that even if there were slums in France, as long as I don't see them, they don't count!
For someone who waxes indignant about straw men and glass houses you seem to pay dreadfully little attention to what I actually wrote. Or perhaps I made my point insufficiently clear? I shall attempt to elaborate.
Over the space of one, or even two decades, in a reasonably industrialised nation, the economy does not grow perceptibly. Even if we take the growth numbers reported at face value, and ignore the fact that part of the growth in most Western countries stems from funny-money being moved around between different accounts, a decade of growth - say, the five-year periods immediately before and after a policy is adopted - would grow the economy by less than forty percent. This makes median income relevant, because significant changes in the income distribution quickly become a zero-sum game.
Thus, if you wish to measure how a policy affects poverty, some fraction of the median income offers a quite reasonable proxy. In the sense of evaluating concrete policies - which was the original topic of this discussion - that makes median income a perfectly relevant tool.
Your example of North Korea having low relative poverty, while correct, is a red herring as long as the policy proposals under debate will have an effect on the overall economy that are several orders of magnitude less than the difference between the economic output of the country discussed and North Korea, which is virtually always the case.
Furthermore, even though I defended - and will continue to defend - median income as a valuable proxy for short-term calculations, you completely sidestepped the fact that I proposed an semi-absolute (absolute in space, but relative in time) measure of poverty: Shelter, heat, food water, education, access to information, access to standard of care-level medical care, access to medicine ('access' in this context means reliable access). I would ask you to evaluate this poverty metric.
I would further ask you to cease putting words in my mouth that I did not, in fact, type. I specifically stated that I agree with you about the lack of usefulness of fraction of median income as a proxy for poverty in some cases, due to its somewhat ad hoc nature.
I also believe that you overlook an important fact in your discussion of the arbitraryness of boundries used in the calculation of relative poverty: The natural boundary to use is the area of jurisdiction in which the policy is being contemplated, since the value of fraction-of-median-income seems to me to be in short-term-evaluation of policies.
Furthermore, I will happily acknowledge both that fraction-of-median income is meaningless outside the evaluation of reasonably industrialized economies (a criterion that neither North Korea nor Beverley Hills fulfills) and that it is not directly comparable to most other metrics of poverty.
This is not a problem, however: All that is relevant in evaluating policies is whether it goes up or down, so all that is required for it to work as a proxy is that there is a monotonous relationship between the fraction of median income and whatever poverty measure you find meaningful. That's the bitch of using proxies: They are usually not directly comparable, and a good proxy in one measurement regime may be a bad one in another.
Over the space of one, or even two decades, in a reasonably industrialised nation, the economy does not grow perceptibly.
This statement is not in agreement with reality.
Even if we take the growth numbers reported at face value, and ignore the fact that part of the growth in most Western countries stems from funny-money being moved around between different accounts
a decade of growth - say, the five-year periods immediately before and after a policy is adopted - would grow the economy by less than forty percent.
And that is not "perceptibly". Sir, you must be jesting.
This makes median income relevant, because significant changes in the income distribution quickly become a zero-sum game.
Income distribution is per definition a zero-sum game, since it's a matter of how the total income is distributed. And the total income is always, guess what, 100% of the total income. Duh.
INCOME is never a zero-sum game, though.
To measure income distribution yes. To meaure poverty, no.
Your example of North Korea having low relative poverty, while correct, is a red herring
No, because the point is that with your argumentation, North Korea is a less poor nation than France, because the income distribution is more even. And that is absurd. Which is my point.
Furthermore, even though I defended - and will continue to defend - median income as a valuable proxy for short-term calculations, you completely sidestepped the fact that I proposed an semi-absolute (absolute in space, but relative in time)
Space?
measure of poverty: Shelter, heat, food water, education, access to information, access to standard of care-level medical care, access to medicine ('access' in this context means reliable access). I would ask you to evaluate this poverty metric.
In fact, that's pretty much what HDI does. Which you didn't like.
You see, I don't agree with that, because in my opinon, poor people continue to be poor even if policies change in neighbouring countries.
Furthermore, I will happily acknowledge both that fraction-of-median income is meaningless outside the evaluation of reasonably industrialized economies (a criterion that neither North Korea nor Beverley Hills fulfills) and that it is not directly comparable to most other metrics of poverty. This is not a problem, however
This is not a problem, however
No, it's not a problem, but that fact that it doesn't relate to other metrics of poverty means either it or the other metrics doesn't really measure poverty at all. And we already know which one that doesn't.
It's time to stop this stupid charade. Percentage of mean income is not and will never be a valid measurement of poverty. No matter how much you twist and turn and start using fancy words that make you feel like you understand things, it is a measurement of income distribution, not poverty. And that's that.
What makes a person "poor"?
If I have a job, house, car, beautiful partner etc. and then lose it all and end up with a mountain of debt I'll never pay off, as long as the state allows me (or has to give me by law) a roof, heating, food allowance, clothing allowance...then I'm not poor on your definition, I think, as "poor" is destitution--no access to reliable food source, polluted water, no access to sanitation...
Have I got that right?
I think that's a valuable measure of poverty, it's one that basically states that "the West" is analagous to the middle-classes in victorian times--globally we are no many (numerically), and internally we have our miseries, but the "real" misery is among the majority (numerically) "working class" who live today in "the poor countries" (Niger, Chad, etc..)
But going back to the person who lost everything (in the West), they're still "poor" in any useful meaning of the word, in that they are the opposite of what they used to be ("well off", I suppose)..."poor" equals "badly off" and "badly off" is....relative?
So now I wonder if the argument here isn't maybe about what "poor" means, when "poor" has both "absolute" and "relative" meanings.
Given the "absolute" meaning (let's say less that 5% of the western popluations are "really" poor), I think there is then a question of where our "richness" comes from, and the "left wing" (heh!) attitude is that it comes from appropriation: the rich appropriate the resrouces of the rest--through coercion if necessary--and that relates back to pensions because the U.S. trend (he guesses wildly) is for "poverty" (access to goods and services, let's say) to be growing--not to "third world" standards--that would be a complete collapse given starting points, but certainly...ach...I'm wildly off topic I'm sure, but I think....there's a confusion here where I understand your definition of poverty...and in a sense I agree that most western "poverty" is psychological rather than physical--and yet, I think there is real poverty: e.g. living next to a motorway in an area full of violence and despair, where the school is also full of violence and despair, and the only jobs take twelve hours to do and if I do one I have mostly no money...'coz if you can't call the misery and lack-of-hope much more than 5% of a population might feel at their predicaments...and now I wonder if 5% or so is a valid figure? If I were to take London, are there about 5% who are basically screwed from the off?
Ach....maybe I no makea ze sense, but...well....if I had a point to make it's up in dem words somewhere. Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.
I think it's rather obvious that these types of poverty are not equavalent, and I also find it rather obvious that just having none of these debts, but a low income, is not the same as starving. And more importantly, I find it completely obvious that a person that is starving is poor, even if his neighbours are starving with them.
And I find it rather astonishing that people here claim to have a different opinion. (It's difficult for me to believe that anybody really do have a different opinion, I think they are just claiming this to be able to grasp on to their set of beliefs).
think there is then a question of where our "richness" comes from,
That's a good question. It was answered in 1776 by Adam Smith, and the answer is specialization and trade.
I'm wildly off topic
Actually, you are more on topic than most. :)
Not at all. Given the width of the confidence intervals frequently employed in economics, forty percent is indeed hardly perceptible.
Further, as Jerome et al have abundantly proven, for all industrial countries and for the past few decades, economic growth has taken place solely in the top half of the income distribution. Thus, any policy that makes changes in the lower half of the income distribution - the half that you claim to care about, is a zero-sum game.
Since you yourself are in the game of gratuitous nitpicking, I would point out that this statement is trivially disproven. If your boss decides to reduce your pay and increase his, this is indeed a change in the income distribution that to zeroth order is a zero-sum game.
This is a point that you would be wise to give some thought, given that your entire hypothesis (if we are kind enough to call it that) is contingent upon this statement being correct.
Saying that does not make it so. Neither does repeating it.
Your example of North Korea having low relative poverty, while correct, is a red herring No, because the point is that with your argumentation, North Korea is a less poor nation than France, because the income distribution is more even. And that is absurd. Which is my point.
You are either completely missing the point or deliberately ignoring it. I will charitably assume that the former is the case, and attempt to clarify once again:
My claim is that fraction-of-median-income (FoMI) is a useful metric to make before-and-after comparisons within the same first-world country. North Korea is not a valid comparison, unless you want to claim that NK is a first-world country, which would undermine the rest of your argument.
Furthermore, even though I defended - and will continue to defend - median income as a valuable proxy for short-term calculations, you completely sidestepped the fact that I proposed an semi-absolute (absolute in space, but relative in time) Space?
That country A gets richer does not affect the poverty threshold or the poverty level in country B. Hence absolute in space. Technological improvements, however, will increase the poverty threshold over time, therefore it is relative
measure of poverty: Shelter, heat, food water, education, access to information, access to standard of care-level medical care, access to medicine ('access' in this context means reliable access). I would ask you to evaluate this poverty metric. In fact, that's pretty much what HDI does. Which you didn't like.
No, that is not what HDI does. HDI is based on population averages, which means that an increase in the living conditions of the richest half of the population can and does mask worsening living conditions in the poorer half of the population, especially in such countries as the United States.
What I proposed was to determine the income required to maintain reliable access to shelter, education, food, water, access to information and education and access to health care and medication, and using this threshold to quantify the poverty level in a society.
I also believe that you overlook an important fact in your discussion of the arbitraryness of boundries used in the calculation of relative poverty: The natural boundary to use is the area of jurisdiction in which the policy is being contemplated, since the value of FoMI seems to me to be in short-term-evaluation of policies. You see, I don't agree with that, because in my opinon, poor people continue to be poor even if policies change in neighbouring countries.
I also believe that you overlook an important fact in your discussion of the arbitraryness of boundries used in the calculation of relative poverty: The natural boundary to use is the area of jurisdiction in which the policy is being contemplated, since the value of FoMI seems to me to be in short-term-evaluation of policies.
Perhaps you should re-read the comment you are responding to, because your reply makes no sense whatsoever. FoMI does not depend on changes in neighbouring countries.
Furthermore, I will happily acknowledge both that FoMI is meaningless outside the evaluation of reasonably industrialized economies (a criterion that neither North Korea nor Beverley Hills fulfills) and that it is not directly comparable to most other metrics of poverty. [...] This is not a problem, however No, it's not a problem, but that fact that it doesn't relate to other metrics of poverty [...]
Furthermore, I will happily acknowledge both that FoMI is meaningless outside the evaluation of reasonably industrialized economies (a criterion that neither North Korea nor Beverley Hills fulfills) and that it is not directly comparable to most other metrics of poverty. [...] This is not a problem, however
[...]
There is no reason that it should. The other measures of poverty that have been reviewed are most meaningfully used to measure poverty in third-world economies. FoMI is applicable only to first-world countries. There is no reason to expect a proxy valid for one measurement regime to correlate with the proxies valid for other, non-overlapping measurement regimes.
It's time to stop this stupid charade.
Indeed. I look forward to take up the discussion again, when you have realised that poverty in first-world countries is not the same as poverty in third-world countries.
No matter how much you twist and turn and start using fancy words that make you feel like you understand things,
I do not believe that this remark requires a reply. I do, however, think that it is worthwhile to highlight it. The reader is invited to compare and contrast this statement to your previous remarks regarding civility and high-minded debate.
I knew quickly that this forum was full of leftist people
You do realize that it's not an insult to be called a leftist? Most of us are proud "leftist people."
It doesn't mean we want strict equality, just basic decency. It simply means that we think CEO income jumping form 34 times average wages 30 years ago to 400 times today should not be taken as a good thing - it's not a sign of energy or talent unleashed, it's a sign of society breaking down under the weight of greed, selfishness and the promotion of the interests of a very narrow group of people in the guise of pushing "freedom" and "merit" and work - or, in other words, "the poor get what they deserve" and "screw your neighbor and you'll go forward."
:: ::
I note that you did not care to comment on the life expectancy numbers. How do you explain away the fact that the bottom 10% by income in the US have a shorter life expectancy than a great number of third world countries? In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
"It doesn't mean we want strict equality, just basic decency."
No, it doesn't mean that. Because people who are not leftist also want that. The world is not made up of kind-hearted leftists and stone-cold fascists, you know.
"It simply means that we think CEO income jumping form 34 times average wages 30 years ago to 400 times today should not be taken as a good thing"
And neither does anybody else. However, only leftists think it's a BAD thing. And the reason for that is that most leftists have a collectivistic and hierarchical mindset and as a result wish only to have as few people people as possible that make more money then them.
The result is that you are concerned mostly about the rich. I personally care mostly about the poor. I couldn't bloody care less about how much a CEO makes. It's not interesting, the CEO can take care of himself. It's not my problem. What I care about is how the poorest of the world live, and how to improve that. I also care about how the state money is being used and how we can get good health care (as in France, and opposed to Sweden and Poland, for example) and things like that.
You only care about how high peoples incomes are, and to support that, you guys make up facts and alternate realities where freedom makes people poor. And when somebody comes and point out that this isn't in correlation with reality, you take your alternative reality and makes that person evil.
Because he has to be, right? Because he is challenging your preconcieved ideas? He sais your standpoint is wrong, and therefore, he challenges the authority and unity of your little cosy collective. And that, per definition is evil, right?
Because "truth" has nothing to do with reality for you guys. No, "truth" that's the collective. You are per definition right and the good guys, and therefore everybody that doens't agree with you must be the bad guys, right?
That fact that your politics have NEVER worked, EVER, no matter what shape or form they have been tried in, and that leftist policies only lead to poverty, that doesn't matter. Because you are right. Per definition. Like the Pope.
If you want debate (but I'm pretty sure you don't want it, you just want to sit here in your box and agree with each other) then you need to start listening and understanding, and trying to understand how the world actually works. And yes, that's painful, and yes that takes time and yes that takes energy.
It is without a doubt much more comfortable and easy to sit cosily and just agree with each other and prop up your own egos by slapping each others back and thinking "look everyone here agrees with me, we are so smart".
But do you want to be lazy and comfy, or do yo want to be right? Doo yo want to walk around in your mental box oozing righteous indignation over how horrible it is that the rest of the world doesn't behave like you want it too, or do you want to help improve it?
Because if you are happy being wrong as long as everybody else are, then there is no point for me to stay.
Over and out.
That's where you have it wrong. We don't mind some inequality. We do mind when inequality is growing and incomes for those outside the top 1% are stagnating or declining.
We mind this gap:
And this one:
and this one:
All of these show that the overall income is growing, sometimes quite strongly, but that growth is going ONLY to the very rich.
THAT's what we're fighting. The totally skewed sharing of the fruits of growth over the past 30 years - which is the direct result of the neo-liberal, "greed is good", "the poor have what they deserve", "screw society" ideology.
Runaway neoliberalism is what we're fighting. Not capitalism per se. In fact, regulated (or social-democratic) capitalism is what made our countries rich and built the middle class. But it's not what we have now. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Growing from what level?
As always, you care more about relative things than absolute things.
That's what you really want to believe, but just look at the last graph I posted: the median wage is stagnating. There is no progress, in absolute terms (your own criteria) for the middle classes, despite fast growth.
So, according to your criteria (as long as the poor are better off, who cares how well the rich fare), the current system is a failure. It's not benefitting in any way to the vast majority of the population.
And the fact that people like you pretend that all is well ("GDP is growing! The economy is doing great!") does not go well with the middle classes who see the rich getting extravagantly richer while they themselves are working ever harder just to stay put.
Incomes are not growing for the vast majority. You can spin that like you want it, it's bad under any criteria. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
They have to have positive returns probability for each of their contracts. Your four grandparents lived into their 90's ? Maybe your life expectancy is too long to retire. No contract for you. That's the result of individual insurance contracts for pensions.
Do your homework. By definition, the state is less risky than the banks, since it can always rise taxes if needs be : it has access to all of a country's wealth. That's why the government bonds are always the highest rated equity in a given country. The state guarantees banks account only up to a certain amount that's way too low to retire on.
The fact that millions of people have had their assets wiped out in various crises in the 20th century shows that that sentence you wrote is complete and utter bogus. Systemic risk isn't zero.
A dozen actors in which I have no control, vs one in which I have a voice. Yep. Much better not to run the risk of having a Soros wipe out my pension plan.
In fact, you are argung that Sarkozy is trying to do just that right now.
He's trying, but not having much success. And I had, and will have, a voice in the process, unlike in the case of markets. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
A dozen actors in which I have no control, vs one in which I have a voice
It's an illusion that you have more control by voting than by buying.
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