1. The UK leaving the EU, but - perhaps - staying inside the trade area.

or

2. The EU becoming the new British Empire, with the UK firmly in charge, telling all those greasy foreigners how to behave in a civilised way.

The EU's problem is that it's easier for Poland and the UK to run spoiler campaigns when no one seems sure what the EU is supposed to be. Is it aiming for federalism? Neo-liberal business growth? An original vision of cooperation between countries?

The Treaty hasn't solved that problem. This agreement has been running on momentum created the meme that the EU is somehow A Good Thing, but if you ask people why, they're going to have a hard time coming up with convincing reasons.

It's not that the reasons don't exist, it's more that instead of bimbling around with not-a-constitution, the EU could have done itself a big favour by articulating those reasons clearly, and giving everyone a reason to care.