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Global Warming didn't light California's Fires, but did fan the flames ... | 14 comments (14 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (4.00 / 5)
News outlets like Foxnews are noisy about suspected arsonist arrests.

5 Arrested For Arson in Southern California

At least five people have been arrested for arson since wildfires broke out across Southern California this week, but none has been linked to any of the major blazes, authorities said Thursday.

[The] latest arrest came Wednesday after witnesses spotted 41-year-old Catalino Pineda starting a fire on a San Fernando Valley hillside and then walking away, Los Angeles police said.

Witnesses alerted authorities and followed him to a nearby restaurant where police arrested him.

Pineda, a Guatemala native, was booked for investigation of arson and held on $75,000 bail. He's currently on probation for making excessive false emergency reports to law enforcement, police said.

Two others, an adult and a juvenile were arrested Tuesday for allegedly starting a small fire in the San Diego suburb of Vista. Still two more arrested in San Bernardino County earlier this week were charged with arson counts for setting blazes.

A sixth man was shot to death by police after he fled officers who approached to see if he might be trying to set a fire.

In Orange County, authorities declared arson as the cause of a 23,000-acre blaze based on evidence showing two distinct ignition points.

It is unspeakably heinous to set up more blazes during a major fire, for sure.

On the other hand, the maximal rage of California fires has nothing to do with initial causes, be it an arson set. The conditions were drought and warmer temperatures for unusually longer time. Whatever initial cause there may be, there is high risk of small blazes escalating. And the risk for these conditions is increasing with global warming - it must be difficult to argue against that.

by das monde on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 09:45:42 PM EST
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (4.00 / 5)
The evidence for increased risk of major fires is there. There were recent fires in Greece and Portugal. And watch out Australia again at around Christmas time...

I wonder is there a website which collects occurrences of natural disasters and their consequences. If a major prediction of climate change is increased frequency of extreme events, there must be an ongoing study and data collection. With more normal times quite behind us, and the public attention span of just a month or two, it is hard to use the frequency argument without historical and statistical data.

by das monde on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 09:52:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (4.00 / 2)
For data acquisition there is Nasa's Natural Hazard Earth Observatory which documents these events. For statistical analysis you'd have to search for specific studies in the literature.

You could also check the ESA (European Space agency) site. During the fires in Greece this summer, I posted a graph showing their analysis of fire frequency in several european countries

by Fete des fous on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 03:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (4.00 / 2)
Some percentage of the fires sound to be arson.

Yet, as you point out, arson has only a marginal relationship to extent / threat of fire. (We can create scenarios where an arson-started fire would be more prone to a rapid start/conflagration ... but this is 'in certain' circumstances.)

Your last paragraph -- spot on. Thank you.

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 06:54:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (4.00 / 2)
The conditions were drought and warmer temperatures for unusually longer time.

It doesn't change fondamentally your argument viz the role of climate change in increasing fire intensity but for the sake of accuracy, let me interject that temperatures were not noticeably above the long-term mean in southern Cal during 2007. Warmer temperatures in previous years did play a role insofar much vegetation died and provided fuel for the current fires.

Last 90 days (Aug-Sept-Oct) temperature and anomaly:

and the same for May-June-July:

by Fete des fous on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 02:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (4.00 / 3)
Right, the summer of 2006 in California was dryer. Another important factor was that the previous 2 summer were very hot there, especially 2004. In North West Australia, that is a recurrent pattern: fires keep minimal vegetation in check, and every "wet" year is followed by an active fire season there.

Some food for though for the Lovelock-type doomsayers: extreme weather phenomena must be requiring special conditions to occur - say, hot waters and cool upper atmosphere for hurricanes, or pecially alternating wet and dry seasons for great fires. Can we observe that special conditions for extreme phenomena are occurring with "suspicious" regularity (rather than in chaotic sequence)? Can we make falsifiable theories from here that Mother Nature could be "really" fighting the new anthropogenic stresses in rather "expert" ways?

by das monde on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 05:44:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (none / 1)
In the second sentence, I mean:

Another important factor was that the previous 2 summer were very wet there, especially 2004.

Sorry for bad typo.

by das monde on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 07:52:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Global Warming didn't light California's Fires (none / 1)
I was a little surprised to read that California had seen both drier and wetter years. I expecially expected that So-Cal would be overall drier, but there it is.

I'd think that conditions for extreme meteorology are occuring with greater regularity insofar the average of weather phenoms has moved toward what we consider extreme relative to the past. Chaotic behavior will continue to occur about the evolving mean, but I am not sure I am addressing your comment.

by Fete des fous on Tue Oct 30th, 2007 at 11:46:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Global Warming didn't light California's Fires, but did fan the flames ... | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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