Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I still maintain that if the US attacks Iran, with or without nuclear weapons, it will be the last mistake Bush will get to make.

Every militant group in Iraq will see this as a direct threat, every civilian in Iraq will understand that they will never be allowed their freedom. Within hours the larger proportion of the American forces in Iraq will find themselves taken hostage. Yes there will be firefights, but irrespective of whether we say it's 140k or 200k or even 350k armed personnel in iraq, they are outnumbered. Massively.

Equally, the only way the US seems able to win at sea on paper is by cheating. Any analysis of probable Iranian resistance, as opposed to the one the americans want, shows the US losing one or even two of their carriers. A devastating humiliation.

Of course, I could be imagining things, I had ideas about how Saddam could succesfully resist that never happened, so I could be totally misinterpreting how iraqis would respond to the bombing of Iran. Of course, we don't have to say, "he'd have to be mad to do this..." cos we that he is mad enough.

But in my opinion, this is a high-risk strategy with little to be gained. And yea, if I was the iranians I'd have some nasty (conventional) surprises parked in various sites around the US too.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 11:41:35 AM EST
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