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The initial escort was driving through a population that wasn't entirely hostile, and fighting a toy army - to the extent that it was fighting at all, which wasn't much. With complete air cover.

Iran has an air force. It might not have an air force for long, but I doubt it's the pushover it might be supposed to be.

Iran also has missiles, is more than happy to use them.

Zip. Bang. No more convoy. Insurgents have fun picking over the pieces. Game over.

We're talking about a quarter of a million people or so, who not only have to be moved, but also require food and water.

You don't need to be a military genius to understand that the best possible outcome would be one of the most humiliating retreats in the long list of humiliating US retreats in recent history.

The middling outcome. would be Stalingrad, only with sunblock. (If they can find any.)

The worst is a friendly nuclear exchange between irritated superpowers.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 05:59:59 PM EST
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