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In the comments to Luis de Sousa's diary I proposed a modification of Marchetti's model and a way to estimate the "market share transfer" coefficients. It would be interesting to find out whether the M1 to M3 transfer coefficient has been more or less constant over the last 50 years.

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Oct 6th, 2007 at 06:34:58 PM EST

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