London - Dying like a Dinosaur | 65 comments (65 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 7)

"I'd add that a major problem is London is the prevalence of terraced houses above high-rises. You've essentially got the New York Metro area with no apartment towers with comparing."

As a small side point, high rise buildings are a huge upcoming problem. They rely on large furnaces heated by natural gas, and a brief overnight failure of the gas supply in the winter would cause the pipes to freeze, making the buildings uninhabitable. If there is a significant glitch in the energy supply to New York, the city could become vacant in a matter of a week.

by asdf on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 09:33:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 2)

also the elevators w/o which few people can make it much above the 10th floor and many not even that far. some of these idiotic stuctures have no opening windows and rely entirely on forced air both for heating and cooling (and breathing).

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 07:04:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

Quite ... as Jane Jacobs pointed out long ago, a very efficient urban housing model is stacked townhouses ... ground floor and basement, first (US second) and top floor.

Once you get populations up to the level to support genuine urban districts, it seems to me that the only direction to address the megalopolis problem is to pursue network cities.

But my geographic knowledge of Britain in terms of travel distance is sketchy ... if there was a real HSR line north from the City of London, where would the half hour radius go to the north? and the hour radius?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 06:52:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 2)

Knock yourself out.

Using the models we discussed in your HSR diary
DoDo:

If it is easy to implement, I'd suggest you refine your model with these next simplest assumptions:
give 40 km/25 miles and 10 minutes each for the acceleration and deceleration phases (the latter is in reality much shorter, but let's have buffer for city entrances),
calculate the rest at maximum speed, if you're a bit bolder, 220 mph (which is a bit under the 360 km/h max for the next generation of Shinkansens),
accept half-hour distances as minimum.
Final point: what about Houston-NOLA, St. Louis-NOLA, Jacksonville-NOLA? All seem to be within the scope of your rules (and all would be great to serve some major sub-million cities along the way, too).

I get

          town minutes

1     Aberdeen 138

2  Aberystwyth  63

3   Birmingham  36

4      Bristol  37

5      Cardiff  47

6        Derby  39

7        Dover  26

8    Edinburgh 109

9       Exeter  52

10     Glasgow 110

11   Inverness 148

12       Leeds  58

13   Liverpool  59

15  Manchester  56

16   Newcastle  80

17     Norwich  37

18  Nottingham  39

19      Oxford  27

20  Portsmouth  26

21   Sheffield  49

22 Southampton  27

23        York  58

for non-stop journeys from central London. It probably makes sense to round to the next higher 10 minutes.

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 07:51:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

So Dublin should be three or four hours from London, not twelve?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 07:53:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

How long is the ferry connection to Aberstywyth, with a fast catamaran?

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 07:54:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

Dublin - Holyhead is 100 minutes, apparently.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 08:08:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

Well Aberystwyth has a very tidal yacht harbour, but nothing that would take a ferry. (the 63 minute journey does make me salivate though) probably the best place to run a high speedline to for Ireland would be Fishguard, you then wouldn't have the problem of getting onto Anglesey to reach Hollyhead when building the line.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 09:00:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

But Fishguard would require Colman to go to Wexford by train!

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 09:09:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

so we have to build some high speed line in Ireland too? Or is Colman banned from Wexford?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 09:25:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 2)

Anglesey is not a problem! You could have a high-speed rail station at Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch.

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 10:46:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 3)

Well apart from how to get a bridge across the Menai straights, avoiding all the chunks of heritage on either side, if you're putting an entirely new line in.

you'd have to not stop at llanfair.p.g. though, just drive straight past at speed so that the passengers thought,"did that sign really say what I thought it did"?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 10:56:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

So, on that the whole Midlands is basically inside an hour. I reckon if its point to point ... eg, Luton, Northhampton, Birmingham, Stoke-on-Trent, Manchester ... that goes beyond an hour end to end, but would still retain a network city effect.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 08:22:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 2)

I also calculated your proposed indicator of suitability of HSR links (namely, geometric mean population divided by distance) for the UK's 10 largest conurbations by population (wikipedia). Here's the result:

         from         to     score miles

90 Manchester      Leeds 41654.487  44.0

88 Manchester  Liverpool 38969.011  34.7

86     London Birmingham 36850.567 118.0

84 Manchester  Sheffield 30957.756  38.7

82 Birmingham Nottingham 23908.977  51.6

80 Birmingham Manchester 23736.151  95.3

78      Leeds  Sheffield 23732.979  41.3

76     London Manchester 20703.905 208.0

74     London Nottingham 18349.031 128.0

72     London    Bristol 18100.438 118.0

70     London      Leeds 17975.517 196.0

68 Birmingham      Leeds 15422.111 120.0

66      Leeds  Liverpool 15259.233  72.5

64 Manchester Nottingham 15065.351  81.1

62 Nottingham  Sheffield 14986.543  43.6

60 Birmingham  Liverpool 13961.131  97.8

58     London  Sheffield 13873.797 166.0

56      Leeds Nottingham 13618.395  73.4

54 Birmingham  Sheffield 13456.476  89.9

52     London  Liverpool 12319.395 211.0

50      Leeds  Newcastle 11661.980  98.5

48 Birmingham    Bristol 11542.302  97.2

46 Manchester  Newcastle  9683.194 145.0                                   

44     London  Newcastle  9605.132 281.0

42  Liverpool  Sheffield  9142.400  79.1

40     London    Glasgow  7716.775 403.0

38 Manchester    Glasgow  7455.181 217.0

36 Birmingham  Newcastle  6848.996 207.0

34    Glasgow  Newcastle  6714.830 151.0

32  Liverpool Nottingham  6584.736 112.0

30 Manchester    Bristol  6277.328 177.0

28      Leeds    Glasgow  6016.128 220.0

26 Birmingham    Glasgow  5632.880 290.0

24  Newcastle  Sheffield  5402.064 139.0

22  Newcastle  Liverpool  4761.271 178.0

20  Newcastle Nottingham  4669.284 164.0

18    Glasgow  Liverpool  4458.924 219.0

16      Leeds    Bristol  4370.254 208.0

14 Nottingham    Bristol  4297.704 141.0

12  Liverpool    Bristol  3725.906 180.0

10    Glasgow  Sheffield  3379.604 256.0

8   Sheffield    Bristol  3301.136 180.0

6     Glasgow Nottingham  3128.789 282.0

4   Newcastle    Bristol  2329.008 299.0

2     Glasgow    Bristol  2162.716 371.0

As was discussed in the US HSR diary, a minimum travel time of 30 minutes corresponds to about 86 miles. A hypothetical Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds train barely has time to reach cruise speed before it has to slow down for the intermediate stop, so the first HSR link that makes sense is London-Birmingham.

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 08:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

Wow, that place looks like it was build for high speed rail ... is that the same UK that took a bloody ax to its rail system a while back?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 09:52:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

Yes. Sad, isn't it?

Considering the Leeds-Manchester-Liverpool line seems to be a no-brainer and potentially the most sensible of all major rail links in the country, I decided to check nationalrail.co.uk to see what the situation is like at present.

The fastest direct train takes 1h47 minutes, while we know it could take as little as 27 minutes non-stop and less than 40 minutes with a stop in Manchester. At nearly 2h travel time it almost makes sense to fly from Leeds to Liverpool, but a good rail connection via Manchester would such the airlines dry of their market share.

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 06:59:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

Set aside HSR ... what would it be at modern Express speed? 10 minutes each accel, 10 minutes each de-accel, that's 40 minutes ... for a tilt-train, say for simplicity that its 7 miles each phase.

OK, Leeds, Manchester, 14 miles in 20 minutes, 30 miles at 100mph so about 18 minutes, for a total of 38 minutes.

Manchester, Liverpool, 14 miles in 20 minutes, 21 miles at 100mph, is about 13 minutes, for about 33 minutes.

10 minutes for debarking and embarking at Manchester, and eventually arriving after an HSR London/Birmingham/Manchester arrives and before it returns, would yield 1 hour 21 minutes.

Non-stop Leeds/Liverpool, 14 miles in 20 minutes, 59 miles in 39 minutes, 59 minutes.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 01:30:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 2)

That is probably what is in place now, except that there are more intermediate stops. 1h21m is not that different from 1h47m, especially if you add additional stops. TransPennine runs Class 185 trains with a top speed of 100mph on all its lines. It could introduce some Class 43 trains for a cruise speed of 125mph (though the top speed is closer to 150mph). That's what passes for "High Speed" in the UK, but it is 25-year old diesel technology.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 06:00:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rail privatization doesn't work (4.00 / 3)

Intercity Express Programme - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The DfT states that their involvement in a future fleet specification and acquisition is necessary for several reasons. Though Britain's rail operators are privatised, their franchises seldom last for more than 12 years; a train, on the other hand, may remain in service for more than 30 years. It is therefore entirely unprofitable for the franchise operator to replace the fleet, leaving the only other option to hire newly acquired trains from third parties, which can prove extremely expensive. The DfT also states that it can, and has, brought train operators together with a `whole system, whole life' perspective to decide on a specification that will be more flexible with regards to future routes and fleet transfers as well as more environmentally aware.

(My emphasis)

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 06:03:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (4.00 / 4)

It depends on the standard of the local rail network as well, Our local railway route lost its ability to run class 43's in about 1993, runing direct to Birmingham at reasonably high speed. One of the main reasons that it was reported to have happened was so that the train companies could reduce the ammount spent on track maintenance by running lighter trains. one of the side effects of this are frequent patches where we are told that we are running slowly in an area due to track conditions.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 06:16:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Double take (none / 1)

Our local railway route lost its ability to run class 43's in about 1993, ... One of the main reasons that it was reported to have happened was so that the train companies could reduce the [amount] spent on track maintenance by running lighter trains.

Say what?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 06:26:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Double take (4.00 / 2)

All the trains on the line when I last went on it were all These

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 06:36:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: London - Dying like a Dinosaur (none / 1)

Obviously I don't know the terrain ... it could be, but 1:20 quite definitely is a different mode split to 1:47, as well as at least one more set to run the same number of services.

But it looks like the key there is conventional Non-Stop / Express / Local scheduling with the Non-Stop chasing the Express chasing the Local into Manchester (on either side).

Assuming 125mph and working that through again ...

Leeds, Manchester, 14 miles in 20 minutes, 30 miles at 125mph so about 15 minutes, for a total of 35 minutes.

Manchester, Liverpool, 14 miles in 20 minutes, 21 miles at 125mph, is about 10 minutes, for about 30 minutes.

10 minutes for debarking and embarking at Manchester, and eventually arriving after an HSR London/Birmingham/Manchester arrives and before it returns, would yield 1 hour 1:15 minutes, so not the same improvement as :145 to 1:20.

Non-stop Leeds/Liverpool, 14 miles in 20 minutes, 59 miles in 29 minutes, 49 minutes.

Not surprisingly, the bonus for a slight ratcheting up of the speed of the class 43 is is the Leeds/Liverpool non-stop.

But to me, the linchpin there for the regional transport task is a true HSR line London/Birmingham/Manchester, and Non-Stop / Express / Locals chasing each other into Manchester to connect with the HSR. However, if it is possible to get an effective Dublin connection by ferry from Liverpool, then I can see taking a London/Birmingham/Manchester HSR on into Liverpool.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 06:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

London - Dying like a Dinosaur | 65 comments (65 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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