Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
No one has anything to say about the population being (according to the Independent) 20%-25% higher than the official figure?

The difference being made up, presumably, of an immigrant population principally of working age. Undocumented or at least slipping between the cracks of official head-counting. Unaccounted for by the census, the labour force survey, social support systems... Living how? Room-sharing? Most, presumably, working for low-paid black-market jobs.

12 to 15 million extra people, most fitting that description, and most of them in South-East England? Does that seem possible?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 12:05:19 PM EST
The 'based on what we eat' analysis seems suspect. I mean, there's news about an obesity pandemic in the UK about every other day. Maybe a lot of UK residents are simply eating two lunches and two dinners a day.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 12:27:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm torn. I don't feel like I have the data to question the figure of 12-15 million extra, but at the same time, living here outside of London & SE, it doesn't seem impossible, if most of them are in the SE.

Did these food analyses account for the ongoing trend for everyone to eat enough for two? Obesity is a real thing...

Around here we've had clearly noticeable immigration. Population levels are, I would estimate anecdotally, back to pre-miner's strike (and steel and textile industry collapse) levels. For Yorkshire that suggests the population has bounced back up by half a million.

Now obviously, not all of those are from outside the UK, but a large majority are.

All the same, replicate that across the country and you only get 7-10 million increase, unless we assume (maybe not unreasonably) that Manchester, Birmingham and London/SE have had a much larger proportionate increase.

And the 60 million figure is the 2001 Census one, which doesn't include social support system info or even labour force survey info.

So, I guess I'm saying:

a) It does look possible.
b) I'm not sure that they are all "between the cracks" of society, so much as that the 60 million figure was known to be worrisome in 2001. There was the whole "1 million missing young men" (of whom I was one.) and numerous other issues.

BUT even if we say pop is 70 mil, with 7 mil "shadow pop" that is 10%, which is incredibly scary now I stop and think about it. 10% of the population...

Welcome to the Anglo disease...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 12:40:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The figure I was using was Helen's 65 million above, which already isn't the Census figure...

If there really are this many extra people, then there are no employment, work volume, or productivity stats left standing... Terrible thought!

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 12:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IT certainly would be a good one to throw at the FT next time they quote productivity per worker stats...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 01:27:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last two censuses has had a similar problem, lots of people chose to disappear the 1991 census had lots of people vanishing to avoid the poll tax. people had a fear that appearing on the census would lead to poll tax bills for visitors, people who were avoiding paying finally being caught, it was reckoned there were a million missing from that one, the million missing men quoted from the 2001 census, were missing from the 1991 figures, from what I remember reading, so they could be 2 million out, or it could be coded language for "we don't know how wrong the figures are, but they're very wrong".        

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 01:04:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No one has anything to say about the population being (according to the Independent) 20%-25% higher than the official figure?

too many people in too little space is too many people...

give or take a few mill, same problems, writ larger...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 04:50:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not only are people overeating, but the "grocery shopping one a week" model also means a lot of waste as food gets to old and is dumped away. 20% of food going this way would not amaze me...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Nov 1st, 2007 at 09:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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