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even if they make all the investment plans announced are made and are on time, we'll still have a gap of 12.5mb/d (more than 10% of overall demand) by 2015; we now officially need to beg OPEC to invest more;
How is demand measured? How do we know supply (and hence consumption) is 10% lower than demand?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 10th, 2007 at 01:46:28 PM EST
The IEA looks at the historical relation between oil demand and economic growth, decides what growth they want and extrapolate oil use from there.

Remember when they lowered projected future oil demand from something like 120 mbpd to 115 mbpd? They got that by deciding you needed a little less oil for a certain amount of growth.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sat Nov 10th, 2007 at 02:12:09 PM EST
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In other words, demand is not measured, it is "marked to model".

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 10th, 2007 at 03:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It sounds like it's more like the term Jerome used about Level 3 assets... What was it? Marked-to-make-believe?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Nov 11th, 2007 at 02:57:15 PM EST
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Then you should know how they predict supply!

After looking at demand they way I described above, they put supply=demand.

Brilliant.

At least that's how they did it a few years ago. Recent development may suggest they have been going sober.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Nov 11th, 2007 at 11:18:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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