It's Here (Almost) | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

The Brazilian oil field is the equivalent of 2 to 3 years of current demand, assuming 100% is recoverable (which it isn't). And do we know the grade of crude it is? Light sweet or heavy sour?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 04:36:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

Actually, it sounds pretty good (if the survey isn't tainted):

BBC NEWS | Business | Brazil announces new oil reserves

The Brazilian government says huge new oil reserves discovered off its coast could turn the country into one of the biggest oil producers in the world.
Petrobras, Brazil's national oil company, says it believes the offshore Tupi field has between 5bn and 8bn barrels of recoverable light oil.

Certainly a better grade than Orinoco.

I've also seen natural gas mentioned in connection with the Brazilian find but I don't have time to track that down right now. :-)

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 04:42:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

between 5bn and 8bn barrels of recoverable light oil

Okay, so that's 2 to 3 years' worth of "good stuff".

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 05:25:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

It is a lot... the great thing is that it will become in hand just exactlyy at the time we need it the most.. when other fields are depleting fast in four- five years.

this oil will not reduce the price of oil and it would make the transition less bumpy...

And if Brazil has decent governemnt.. they will also win..

it's a win win situation...
OH and the problem of global warming is coal.. not oil...

A pelasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 06:39:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

See! The markets provide!

All you have to do is believe hard enough.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:24:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

2 or 3 years? (4.00 / 3)

Current consumption = 85 mb/d = 31 billion barrels per year.

Make it a couple months.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:07:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2 or 3 years? (none / 1)

Whoops, I was off by a factor of 10.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:12:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2 or 3 years? (none / 1)

The important thing is that it can provide 3 million barrels per day during roughly 5 years..

It will not affect price int he shrot term.. it will eep on increasing... but it would make the transition easier.. and for a longer period...

My big worry right now is global warming.. and it is called coal...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:26:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah (none / 1)

Given its size and technicla parameters, it's unlikely to product more than 1mb/d even with the optimistic reserve numbers.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:29:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nah (none / 0)

If it's only 1 mb per day for 15 years.. it is a big drop but not enough.. if it reaches 3 million per day then teh transition should be smoother in the 2012-2015

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:32:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

More like 2-3 months.

Still, it's a glorious find. Light and sweet. Biggest since Kashagan 20-30 years ago. (The IHT wrote that Kashagan was discovered in 2000 in the paper today, but the truth is that the Russians had known about it since the 80's but never had had any reason, nor the ability, to drill it).

This Tupi field is really ultra-deep. 6000 metres of water and then 4800 metres of rock and salt. When it's completed it will be a triumph of science and engineering.

I don't mind the problematic location as I have financial interests in the ultra-deep offshore drilling sector.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:16:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

This Tupi field is really ultra-deep. 6000 metres of water and then 4800 metres of rock and salt. When it's completed it will be a triumph of science and engineering.

Ahem.

At what oil price does this field become economical to exploit?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:21:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

I can't say, but I am sure it will be profitable at current prices.

Maybe the level is $50-$80 for this field? But I am just speculating here, I don't really know much at all about these things.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:32:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A few PNs (4.00 / 2)

Kashagan really was discovered in 2000. The North Caspian had never been explored by the Soviets. It was known as a potentially good place to do so, but that's not quite the same thing.

Tupi is in 2,000m waters, not 6,000, but it's still a lot.

It's not that light for oil - it's just a lot lighter than the (very heavy) crude Brazil produces for now.

and it's not clear at all that the announced reserves are there - they are interpolating between two far away wells (the second one which cost USD 250 Million, btw).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:12:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A few PNs (none / 0)

Well god damn it. I guess I was wrong about Kashagan. But I was so sure... Grr.

The numbers are from the IHT.

To coax the oil from the Tupi reservoir, engineers will have to drill up to 4,800 meters, or 16,000 feet, below the sea floor through salt and rock, in water depths of up to 6,000 meters, an undertaking that is at the frontier of the global industry's technological ability, according to PFC Energy, a consultancy in Washington.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:39:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A few PNs (none / 0)

It's 28 degrees API so medium oil, but close to light which begins at 31.1 IIRC.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's Here (Almost) | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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