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This has all the appearance of a bubble. Short term prices and long term trends need to be thought of differently just like there is a distinction between weather and climate.

Fossil energy sources will trend upward for some number of decades if present consumption and production trends continue, but there will be ups and downs along the way.

At some point in the near future the warring factions within Iraq will decide that they would rather have a piece of the oil pie and stop fighting. This will be followed by development of the oil resources and, eventually, an oil glut. We will also see some behavioral changes.

High fuel prices in the US will feed the recession which will lower demand for some time as well. I'm guessing that all those who are buying contracts at this moment won't be happy with their decision.

I look at just the behavior in a place like NYC and I can easily see many places where energy use could be cut with no impact on anything of importance. This includes simple things like reining in Christmas decorations, turning off office building lights at night and cutting down decorative illumination on bridges and buildings.

The NY Times killed a few trees this morning by publishing an extra section on energy savings. The advertisers are starting to show an interest in greenwashing, but actual change has not happened yet. It will.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 10:36:30 AM EST

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