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Yes, and it is important to distinguish a theoretical construct intended to predict patterns of results, from a predictive scheme that gathers and crunches data, outputting numbers and dates. To be a falsifiable scientific theory, the former need only predict what patterns of behavior may occur (or equivalently, what patterns won't occur).

The idea that economic theory is necessarily about prediction, like celestial mechanics applied to planets, is the source of much confusion. "Economists can't predict recessions, so what do they know?" The answer is that, in principle, they could know a lot, yet never predict a price or an economic fluctuation.

That economists commonly think they know many things that aren't actually true is a different issue.

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by technopolitical on Sun Nov 11th, 2007 at 02:34:49 PM EST
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