Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Im trying to figure out why you would cite a poll says the exact opposite of your premise. And then why I point it out, you state it is flawed.

Anyway, I dont think Spanish changing their minds about feeling "european" is impossible, or hopeless. I am saying you have an uphill battle.  It didnt happen overnight in the U.S. Many states used to have border wars before the revolution.  Of course, there was the civil war, when half the country wanted to be their own country.  The trend lately has been for countries to split up-Soviet Union, Kosovo-Serbia etc, for ethnicity reasons.  Europe is trying to do the opposite of that trend.  

Right now, the EU government is secondary to the member states. BUt I have the feeling that many here would prefer the opposite.  I am not sure most european citizens are ready for that given the statistics you cite.


by Terry (Terry@pollackzuckerman.com) on Sun Dec 16th, 2007 at 11:42:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you think is my premise?

I did not cite a poll that I knew from before. I just went and found what is probably the best source of opinion polls (CIS: Spain's Institute for Sociological Investigations) and found the most recent poll on European attitudes (2004: the year of the latest European Parliament elections). I then interpreted the result. You disagree with my interpretation. What I was after was basically a measure of the strength of the sentiment, not a yes/no answer as to whether it exists.

For good measure, I just went and found the previous analogous poll, from 1999 (previous EP elections). The results were as follows:

Out of 2491 respondents,
Mostly European 5.2%
Equally Spanish and European 21.5%
Mostly Spanish 65.4%
Neither (Spontaneous) 7.1%

One of the advantages of CIS polls is, clearly, that they provide you with time series of the same questions.

So I would say the shift towards a European identity is strong, considering it's happened in only 5 years. Not that I expect you to agree.

For reference:

I found a 2004 Spanish survey on attitudes to the EU. Out of a sample of 2488 people,
6.9% feel primarily European
27.0% feel equally Spanish and European
59.3% feel primarily Spanish
6.0% feel neither
If you put this on a logit basis you have
Mostly European goes from -2.90 to -2.60
Equally Spanish and European goes from -1.30 to -0.99
Mostly Spanish goes from 0.64 to 0.38
Neither goes from -2.57 to -2.75

If I had to make an extrapolation based on this I'd predict for 2009
Mostly European 9%
Equally Spanish and European 34%
Mostly Spanish 53%
Neither 5%
with "mostly Spanish" dropping below 50% by 2014 and below "both equally" by 2019. By the time I'm 50 the "mostly European" group would be at 20% and the "mostly Spanish" group at 34%

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 17th, 2007 at 08:25:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't know about the maths, but the politics is certainly all to play for.  Given the number of Brits who now live in Spain, even the UK may soon be becoming less Eurosceptic.  In reality, European integration s probably happening at a popular level even faster than it is happening at an official, structural level.  Whether there will be a reaction against this at some stage, I don't know, but for most people, an ever deepening level of European integration is now a given.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 17th, 2007 at 08:39:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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